Week 1 NFL Predictions Against the Spread (2011): Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears

The Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears entered the 2011 NFC playoff picture as the top two seeds. They left as the victims of the Green Bay Packers Super Bowl run. Both teams will finally get to release their frustrations on each other in Week 1.

The early spread on this game is Falcons (-3) Here are some of the key aspects of the game and what to watch out for when betting. All lines from Cooper’s Pick and Injury Reports from covers.com as of September 5, 2011.

#1: Injuries

The Falcons have a few injuries that should be paid attention too. C Todd McClure is out indefinitely after arthroscopic knee surgery. DT Corey Peters is listed as questionable as is CB Dunta Robinson. The Falcons defensive backfield is already suspect enough without their no. 1 cornerback

The Falcons already lost Harvey Dahl this past off-season to the St. Louis Rams. That’s two of their best offensive linemen. The reason this would concern me is because I felt like their OL was the biggest reason for why Ryan was able to evolve like he did. I don’t know much about Sam Baker but from what I understand he’s vulnerable to speed rushers. That doesn’t bode well when one’s playing Lovie Smith’s cover-2 defense. Julius Peppers, anyone?

The Bears have some players who are also questionable. DT Anthony Adams, RBs Marion Barber and Kahlil Bell, and DE Corey Wooton are hampered by injury. That offsets some of Atlanta’s offensive-line injuries and departures.

#2: Regular-season openers

The Atlanta Falcons suffered a 15-9 overtime defeat in their 2010 regular-season opener to a Pittsburgh Steelers team who didn’t have Ben Roethlisberger. The Chicago Bears enjoyed a 19-14 victory over the Detroit Lions despite a controversial call that neglected Calvin Johnson of the go-ahead touchdown.

#3: Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler are considered as two of the NFL’s up-and-coming quarterbacks. They’re both coming off playoff imbroglios. Both of these guys need to get that cheese whiz out of their mouth and prove that they’re the franchise quarterbacks who will lead these organization’s to the promised land.

#4: Atlanta Falcons preseason record: 0-4

The Atlanta Falcons were winless throughout the preseason. They’re also coming off that 48-21 debacle in the NFC Divisional Playoff and a loss to the New Orleans Saints a few weeks before that.

Have they lost their swagger? I don’t think so but I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a sluggish start.

Final Predictions:

Here’s the problem I have with the Chicago Bears: they’re disorganized. This comment from Fro Dog on the Fire Jerry Angelo blog sums up my feelings on the 2011 Bears (edited for expletives):

What Chucky said about the Bears pretty much sums up what I was going to say. Along with that, the Bears have proved that they aren’t cheap (anuses). They spend more money than most teams do. However, they don’t spend it very wisely. They pretty much just throw the money in a pile and whoever wants it regardless of how good they are, can get it. That’s how it’s been for years. I am sick of it.

The Bears had a great season last year and were probably overachievers. However, I don’t think you can sustain success by running a franchise like Jerry Angelo does. I must question an offensive system that can’t implement Greg Olsen into it. The Lance Briggs drama just adds unto the uneasiness.

The Bears don’t have the receivers that can exploit the Falcons defensive backs. The Falcons have a tight end (Tony Gonzalez) and power running back (Michael Turner) of whom I believe can hurt the Bears cover-2 defense.

HOWEVER, The Packers exploited the Falcons lack of speed and explosiveness. The Bears thrive on speed. The ironic thing is that Soldier Field might actually work in Atlanta’s favor.

The line opened up as a pick ‘em but is now Falcons (-3) as I write this. My mind is telling me Atlanta but my gut is saying Chicago. The Bears defied the odds so many times last season and some would have classified them as “Lucky.” I think I’m leaning toward the home underdog for the regular-season opener. This should be a great game nonetheless.

Against the Spread: Chicago Bears (+3)
Straight: Chicago Bears 20, Atlanta Falcons 17

More from Yahoo! Contributor Network

Checkout my Y!CN portfolio and/or my NFL predictions blog for more predictions and evaluations throughout the week.

Week 1 NFL Predictions Against the Spread (2011): Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Week 1 NFL Predictions Against the Spread (2011): Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers


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