COMMENTARY | Is he more akin to the crazy grandpa whose outlandish ideas draw the rolling of eyes, or congressional stalwart who has been a fierce advocate of the Constitution? The presidential candidacy of Ron Paul seems to fall somewhere in between. But if the Republican Party wants to win in 2012, he may be their only hope.
In a previous article, I discussed Romney’s inability to convince GOP voters that he should be their nominee. Even in New Hampshire, where Romney won handily, a CBS exit poll showed that half of Granite State voters made up their minds in the closing days of the election. The same seems to be true of the “first in the south” primary, South Carolina.
CNN reports Mitt Romney’s lead in the polls has doubled in South Carolina in recent weeks. Romney now sits at 37 percent, and atop the field. Unless South Carolinians know something the rest of us don’t, it is safe to say Romney’s lead is due to electability. One member of Fairfield County’s Republican executive committee said it best, “I’m with Mitt…I think he’s best able to beat Obama.” But, is he really?
In a primary process that features the votes of Republicans, Romney outshines his opponents. He should; he represents the old boy’s club. Although evangelicals and Tea Partiers have pull in the GOP, they still do not represent the majority of the party. Yet, according to a new Gallup poll, only 27 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans, and they are not enthusiastic about the field. That is a recipe for disaster in the general election, and if Republicans want to avoid defeat, they would nominate Ron Paul as their candidate.
Paul is fiscally conservative enough to draw the votes of Republicans, and “outside the box” enough to draw the vote of, well, everybody else. An astonishing 40 percent of Americans now identify themselves as independent. Americans’ disgust in the two party system is finally putting a crack in its foundation. Paul’s cult following can fill those cracks.
Had President Obama won the votes of only Democrats in 2008, even a lackluster John McCain may have threatened then candidate Obama. In 2012, Obama will once again depend on the votes of young voters and independents. But these voters are unpredictable and are by nature non-conformists. According to Fox News, in 2008 independent voters supported Democrats 51 percent, compared to 43 percent for Republicans. In 2010, the trend reversed, as Republicans won independents 55 percent to 39 percent. A higher voter turnout in the 2012 presidential election will benefit Democrat Obama, but Paul, unlike Romney, has a better chance of eroding Obama’s support among independents. Likewise, Paul can make Benedict Arnolds of Obama’s young voting bloc, who look at Paul as a “game changer.” In New Hampshire, CNN’s exit polls showed that Paul crushed Romney 46 percent to 26 percent among voters 18-29.
While the media continues to disregard Paul as an illegitimate candidate, Americans continue to disregard the media. Friday, Public Polling Place reported that Paul gained 6 points in a week in South Carolina, while Romney and Gingrich remain stagnant. Paul’s chances of winning South Carolina still remain slim, but his chances of winning against Obama are far from the same. At Thanksgiving dinner, grandpa says some crazy things, but chances are, he still knows more than you.