Questions Facing Texas Rangers During Season’s Final Weeks… And Beyond

The last team to be reviewed in this series (see prior “Questions” pieces on the Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers by viewing the author’s Yahoo! Contributor’s Profile), the Texas Rangers may have the fewest question marks headed into October. They finished their recent west coast road trip with a 6-1 record and have stretched their division lead to 6 games over Los Angeles.

Much attention thus far has been given to the Rangers’ offense, and rightfully so. The Rangers rank in the top 3 in Avg. (1st), Hits (1st), Total Bases (1st), Runs (3rd), On-base Percentage (3rd), Slugging (3rd), and OPS (3rd). The production is balanced well throughout the line-up, evidenced by the 7 Rangers with double-digit home runs and 50+ RBI.

Less noticeable, but equally critical to this season’s results however, has been the effectiveness and reliability of a largely unheralded pitching staff. Each of the Rangers’ starting 5 (Wilson, Lewis, Holland, Harrison, and Ogando) has made at least 23 starts, thrown at least 140 innings (averaging 6.1 innings/start), and won at least 10 games. Only 1, Holland, has an ERA over 4.00 (4.23) and 1 other (Harrison) has failed to pitch at least 1 complete game (as a staff, they rank 4th in the league with 9 CG).

Furthermore, the Rangers have solidified what was a marginal bullpen with the acquisitions of Mike Adams (57 IP, 58 K, 1.41 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and Koji Uehara (55.1 IP, 72 K, 2.11 ERA, 0.74 WHIP) to go along with journeyman lefty-specialist, Darren Oliver (40.1 IP, 36 K, 2.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and surprising Yoshinori Tateyama (37 IP, 39 K, 2.43 ERA, 0.86 WHIP). In fact, the biggest question in the Rangers’ bullpen may be the one slot about which they had no concerns in April:

Texas Rangers, Question #1: Can Neftali Feliz be the shutdown closer he is expected to be?

THE GOOD
Relax. Only in comparison to his stellar 2009-10 performances do Feliz’s 2011 numbers seem worrisome. He is on pace to match or exceed his 2010 save total of 40 games with a WHIP of 1.16 and BAA of .202. During his worst month, when he blew 3 save chances and posted a career-high WHIP of 1.65, Feliz showed his propensity to get out of trouble by keeping his ERA at a tidy 1.74 in 10 May appearances. For the season, Feliz seems to toughen up as the situation becomes increasingly dire; Opponents have a .182 AVG against Feliz with RISP/2 outs and he has given up 0 hits, 0 walks, 0 runs in bases loaded situations in 2011.

As far as potential opponents go, Feliz has been dominant against them; Mike Aviles (Red Sox), Robinson Cano (Yankees), and Austin Jackson are the only potential playoff opponents to have more than 1 hit off Feliz in 2011 and all, with 1 Jackson 2B as the exception, are singles. Since the All Star break, Feliz has 7 Saves and posted a 0.91 WHIP, .180 BAA, and 13 K in 14 IP.

THE BAD

The numbers don’t lie; Feliz has become decreasingly effective in each of his 3 seasons with Texas.

2009: 1.74 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, .124 BAA, 11.32 K/9
2010: 2.73 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .176 BAA, 9.22 K/9
2011: 3.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .202 BAA, 6.70 K/9

Considering nearly all playoff games will be played under the lights, what may be most concerning to the Rangers could be Feliz’s 2011 day/night splits. In day games, Feliz is 12/12 in save opportunities and has not given up an earned run in 16 IP. At night, Feliz has blown 6/19 save opportunities, with a 4.73 ERA and 22 strikeouts against 17 walks in 32 IP.

History shows that a dominant closer is critical for playoff success. In the last 5 post-seasons, the closers on eventual WS Champs have posted the following lines:

2010, Brian Wilson: 11.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 12.30 K/9, 6/6 Saves

2009, Mariano Rivera: 16.0 IP, 0.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.87 K/9, 5/5 Saves

2008, Brad Lidge: 9.1 IP, 0.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 12.54 K/9, 7/7 Saves

2007, Jonathan Papelbon: 10.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6.75 K/9, 4/4 Saves

2006, Adam Wainwright: 9.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 13.97 K/9, 4/4 Saves

While other members of the Rangers bullpen are posting numbers comparable to World Series Champion closers, Feliz is not… not even close.

In Ron Washington’s position, do you trust Feliz with the ball in the 9th inning or do you turn to another member of the bullpen? Feedback and responses are, as always, appreciated. Thanks for reading.

**All statistics were acquired from Yahoo! Sports player profiles, espn.go.com, and baseball-reference.com. 2011 statistics were current through league play at 9:00am on August 20, 2011.


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