If there was any doubt left about the appeal of tablets, Apple’s iPad sales figures from Q4 2011 seem to have put them to rest. More than 15 million iPads were sold in the final quarter of last year. To put that into perspective, Gartner Research says HP, the world’s top PC vendor, shipped 14.7 million desktops, laptops, and netbooks over the same period.
Later this year Microsoft is expected to introduce their next version of Windows. Development of Windows 8 has primarily focused on tablet compatibility. It borrows the Metro UI from Windows Phone, as well as improvements to power management and CPU/memory usage. There will even be an app store, called the Windows Store, to simplify software installation.
Copying the Apple model
The roots of Microsoft’s tablet strategy appear to go back at least as far as 2010, and likely to early development of Windows Phone in 2009. In November of 2008 Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer began talking about selling apps. An account of those early comments in Computerworld makes it clear he didn’t think much of the iTunes App Store. In 2010 The Seattle Times documented Ballmer reversing course while speaking at the University of Washington. He said, “Apple’s done a very nice job that allows people to monetize and commercialize their intellectual property.”
A few days later Windows Phone Marketplace was unveiled at the MIX10 developer conference. As with the iPhone, Windows Phone utilizes a walled garden. All apps must be purchased through the Windows Phone Marketplace. Microsoft also borrowed from Apple by strictly controlling Windows Phone hardware.
However, there was still one fundamental difference between iOS and Windows Phone. At it’s heart, iOS is a stripped down version of OS X. That makes it scalable for more sophisticated apps like you might want on a tablet. Windows Phone is based on a less sophisticated OS called Windows CE, with some additional features tacked on for features like app and networking support.
Microsoft already had several years of tablet development under their belt. Touchscreen support has been standard since Windows Vista. Rather than trying to upgrade Windows CE for tablets, they made the logical choice to concentrate on making Windows 8 more tablet friendly than its predecessors. A major part of that initiative was adding support for ARM processors.
Previous versions of Windows are written for traditional PCs which use x86 CPUs. Mobile versions of these chips have proven too power hungry for smartphones and tablets in the past. As a result, Windows 7 is incompatible with the most common tablet hardware. By creating a variant of Windows 8 for ARM devices, Microsoft has bridged that gap.
Supporting a new type of processor is complicated. A program written for x86 may use features or instructions ARM doesn’t support. One important feature of Metro UI is handling those differences. According to Stephen Sinofsky, president of Microsoft’s Windows division, every Metro UI app will work on both x86 and ARM editions of Windows 8. Beyond that, he has been noncommittal about whether any non-Metro program will run at all on ARM.
Is this the new Microsoft way?
Microsoft also created special rules for partners producing ARM Windows 8 devices. Every OEM Windows 8 machine must include a feature called Secure Boot, and it must be enabled by default. Secure Boot prevents any program from running before the operating system starts. It is designed to block malicious code. ARM-based Windows 8 computers have an additional requirement. Users must not have the option to turn Secure Boot off.
If Windows 8 on ARM only runs Metro Style apps, this would produce a walled garden similar to Windows Phone, and by extension similar to the iPad. Metro Style apps can only be installed through the Windows Store. I have asked Microsoft about this, but so far haven’t received an answer.
A lot of companies have tried to copy the success of the iPhone and iPad and failed because they can’t duplicate the Apple experience. Microsoft’s big gamble seems to be turning their back on the Windows experience. When a consumer buys a new Windows computer, the expectation is that his old software will still run. It may look a little different or require some extra installation steps, but most of the time it works.
Limiting ARM tablets to running Metro Style apps would break that support in a big way. Software which is still being developed could be rewritten for Metro, but that probably won’t help if you aren’t using the most current version. If the developer doesn’t want to add Metro support or if the software isn’t being developed any more, you would just be out of luck.
ARM isn’t the only game in town
Microsoft is not the only company looking to make a splash in the tablet business this year. Intel has redesigned their Atom processor to make it more competitive with ARM. The first of these new mobile chips was unveiled at CES earlier this month. Intel already has deals in place for Atom powered Android devices.
Atom processors are compatible with x86, which means they could run all that existing Windows software ARM processors won’t. Combine legacy software support with a detachable keyboard like the Acer Iconia W500 does, or a keyboard and trackpad dock like the ASUS Transformer, and you have a tablet which doubles as a laptop or netbook.
Not only would that bridge the gap between the tablet and desktop, it would present OEM’s with tough questions and no easy answers. How much money should they invest in Windows 8 ARM devices? Can they afford to invest heavily in both ARM and x86? What happens to ARM support if x86 tablets dominate the market?
Microsoft may come out a winner in the short term no matter what, but it could be a pyrrhic victory. Consumers frustrated with tablets which don’t run their old software may suddenly decide it’s a good time to give Apple a try. OEMs with upset customers or tablets they can’t sell might be hesitant to follow Microsoft’s lead next time around.
The bigger danger for Microsoft is Windows 8 may simply not appeal to consumers. If they truly want to follow Apple’s lead, staking the future on app sales probably isn’t the way to do it. Apple is still primarily a hardware company. Is Microsoft still an OS company?
Apple, “Apple Reports First Quarter Results”, Apple Press Info
Gartner, “Gartner Says Worldwide PC Shipments in Fourth Quarter of 2011 Declined 1.4 Percent; Year-End Shipments Increased 0.5 Percent”, Gartner Newsroom
Antoine Leblond, “Previewing The Windows Store”, MSDN
Gregg Keizer, “Ballmer: Microsoft working on App Store-like software distribution”, Computerworld
Brier Dudley, “Apple, Microsoft warming up to each other”, The Seattle Times
Microsoft, “Microsoft Announces Support of System on a Chip Architectures From Intel, AMD, and ARM for Next Version of Windows”, Microsoft News Center
Steven Sinofsky, “Microsoft Financial Analyst Meeting 2011″, Microsoft Investor Relations
Microsoft, “Windows 8 Hardware Certification Requirements”, Windows Dev Center
Intel, “Intel Raises Bar on Smartphones, Tablets and Ultrabook Devices”, Intel Newsroom