The Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) have to be the least fortunate team in the AFC, if not the entire league. The reason? The Bengals find themselves in third place in the AFC North, a full two games behind both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. It is likely that both Baltimore and Pittsburgh will each finish with at least 12 wins. One team will claim the AFC North title and the other team will take the first wild-card position. This leaves four teams for the final playoff spot in the AFC. In any other division in football the Bengals would probably have at least one additional victory which would put them in prime position for a wild-card berth. However, with two games each against the Ravens and Steelers, the Bengals will likely finish with a 0-4 record against these clubs. This puts them at a great disadvantage to their rivals, the Jets, the Titans, the Raiders and the Broncos, all of whom have identical 7-5 records.
Although it is possible that the Titans could go 0-4 against intra-divisional rivals Jacksonville and Houston this appears unlikely. No other contender will drop more than 3 games to any two division opponents. Nevertheless, the Bengals retain their playoff hopes. However, this week’s game against the Houston Texans (9-3) is very important to those hopes. The Bengals need to get to 10 wins and with the season finale against Baltimore being a likely loss; Cincinnati needs to win this week to have a shot of getting to 10 wins.
The contest for the AFC West title between Denver and Oakland will sort itself out soon. The loser of this race will be the fourth team competing for the final wild-card slot. It is conceivable that one of these five teams will run the table and reach 11 wins. Should that happen, then that team will either win the AFC West (in the case of Denver or Oakland) or claim the final wild-card position (in the case of the Bengals, Tennessee or New York). However, for purposes of this discussion I will assume that 10 is the magic number for reaching the playoffs this year.
Since Denver owns the tiebreaker over Cincinnati, Bengals fans will want to cheer on the Broncos to the division title. This leaves the Raiders, the Titans and the Jets. Cincinnati wins the tiebreaker over Tennessee due to their victory against the Titans earlier this season. The next tiebreaker is conference records. In this tiebreaker the Bengals are one game ahead of the Raiders and will likely have to beat Houston or Baltimore to retain that edge. Should their winning percentage against conference opponents be tied, the next tiebreaker is the best winning percentage against common opponents. Here the Bengals also have a one game advantage and must beat the Texans to ensure that they own this tiebreaker against the Raiders. Against the New York Jets the Bengals hold a one game lead in the conference record, but the Jets have easier remaining opponents and could easily reverse this advantage. The Jets would also win a tiebreaker based on common opponents unless Cincinnati defeats Baltimore in the season finale. Cincinnati fans need to keep an eye on how the Jets are doing in the next few weeks.