Recently, I’ve read articles and blogs complaining about the off season moves the Philadelphia Phillies made (or lack there of) but on paper, this team looks just as good, if not better than the 2011 team.
Here’s my overview of the 2012 team:
– Ryan Howard – 1B – Everything I’ve heard so far about Howard’s rehab from his injury looks promising. Some say that he could be back much earlier than earlier reports of June or July – some are saying he could be back in time for the season opener. Although Howard’s numbers have declined since his MVP days, he is still among the top power hitters in the league and is an RBI machine. Barring any setbacks, I see Ryan hitting .270+, 30+ HR’s and 100+ RBI’s – which would place him among the elite 4 hole hitters in the league.
– Chase Utley – 2B – I think Utley was hampered with injury/pain for most of 2011. Again, barring any setbacks, I think Utley will have a bounce back season. I’m thinking a line like .280+, 20+HR’s and 80+ RBI’s.
– Jimmy Rollins – SS – Jimmy seems to be happy to be back in a Phillies uniform and apparently he took less money/years to do so. With the stress of the contract out of the way, I think J-Roll will have a solid season in the leadoff spot: .280+, 15+ HR’s, 60+ RBI’s and 25+ SB.
– Placido Polanco – 3B – A lot of fans are counting Polanco out and saying he is done. I digress. Polanco is a lifetime .300 hitter and I think with the double hernia healed up, barring any setbacks, he will bounce back and have a solid season BOTH defensively and on offense. I’m looking at a line of .290+, 10 HR’s and 70+ RBI’s.
– Carlos Ruiz – C – I think Ruiz will have a Ruiz type of year – .280+, 7+HR’s and 50+ RBI’s – all the while being among the best defensive catchers in the league.
Outfield: If they all play up to their potential and barring any major injuries, they have the capacity to be among the best outfields in the league – both on offense and defense:
– Shane Victorino – CF – Shane is already among the best center fielders in the game and he is in a contract year. I think this is he could put up All Star type numbers. I wouldn’t put a line of .300+, 20+ HR’s, 70+ RBI’s and 30+ SB out of the question – and another Gold Glove to match.
– Hunter Pence – RF – With injuries out of the way, I think Pence will be a powerhouse this season. I think he could go: .300+, 25 HR’s+ and 100+ RBI’s.
– John Mayberry Jr. – LF/1B – Mayberry showed a lot of heart and determination last season and the results showed in the second half. He has become a starting outfielder with power in this league. I think he continues to improve, look for a line of: .270+, 25+ HR’s and 80+ RBI’s.
Bench: The biggest improvement in the off season was the bench. This bench now not only has plenty of power (much more than last season) but they boast a very good mix of veteran leadership and experience.
– Jim Thome – PH/1B – I think Thome will get some spot starts at 1st and will be the best pinch hitter off the bench. I’m thinking he will get upwards of 200+ AB’s with a line of .270+, 15+ HR’s and 35+ RBI’s.
– Brian Schneider – C – Solid back up catcher and the Phillies almost always win when he starts, should be fine in the backup role.
– Ty Wigginton – OF/Utility – Could get a fair amount of starts if someone is slumping or hurt. I see him getting over 300 at bats with a line of: .260+, 15+ HR’s and 50+ RBI’s.
– Wilson Valdez IF/Utility – I think Valdez will have a solid, WIlson Valdez type season – great on defense and good enough on offense for a bench or 7/8 hole hitter.
– Laynce Nix Utility – I don’t know much about him other than his stats but he looks to be a very capable bench player with decent pop.
Starting Pitchers: Once again they could be regarded as among the best starting rotations in MLB. The loss of Oswalt could hurt but realistically I can see a combination of Blanton and Kendrick matching Oswalt’s performance last season of a 9-10 record and a 3.69 ERA.
– Roy Halladay (RH) – Doc is Doc and will mostly have close to another Cy Young type season. I think an 18+ win season with sub 3 ERA should be more than reachable.
– Cliff Lee (LH) – Other than a World Series title, I think Lee wants a National League Cy Young Award and after last years National League Divisional Series, I think he comes back with fury this season – I’m thinking a 20 win season with a ERA in the 2.5 range could be in the mix.
– Cole Hamels (LH) – Huge, contract year for him. Cole continues to improve and could compete for the Cy Young this year. 18+ wins and an ERA in the 2.5 range.
– Joe Blanton (RH) – Blanton looked good after coming back at the end of last season and I think he comes out with having something to prove. His contract is up after the season and if he wants to make anything close to what he is making now, he will have to perform. I wouldn’t put an ERA in the 3.5 range with a 10+ win season out of reach for him.
– Vance Worley (RH) – A lot of people thought he was a fluke at the end of the 2010 season but he came back this past season to prove the naysayers wrong. I think if he continues to learn and progress a 12+ win season with an ERA in the 3 range is reachable.
Bullpen: This bullpen on paper looks to be among the best in the league.
– Jonathan Papelbon (RH) – Has been among the elite closers in the AL and coming to the NL shouldn’t hurt. Put him in for a sub 2.5 ERA with 35+ saves.
– Antonio Bastardo (LH) – Showed last season that he is the real deal and among the best lefty relief pitchers in the game. Barring any setbacks, Bastardo should have a sub 2.5 ERA, 20+ Holds and 5+ saves in the setup role.
– Kyle Kendrick (RH) – Probably one of the more undervalued players on this team. The guy improved dramatically last season and showed that he can be a legitimate 4 or 5 starter in this league. I’m looking for him to be the primary long relief pitcher and get about 10+ starts next season. I think he should boast a sub 3.5 ERA with close to 10 wins.
– Jose Contreras (RH) – If he can get back to form, he should be a solid, experienced arm coming out if the pen.
– Dontrelle Willis (LH) – I’m actually excited about this off season move. Just a few years back, Willis was competing for a Cy Young. Although those days seem to be behind him, he still dominates against left handed hitters – and that’s something this bullpen really needed coming out of 2011. I also see him getting some spot starts if someone gets hurt, etc.
– Michael Stutes (RH) – With a full season of experience under his belt, he should once again be a solid bullpen arm.
– One of: David Hendon, Michael Schwimer, Justin DeFratus or Joe Savery – not a bad bunch to have to choose from as the final bullpen arm.
The 2011 team won 102 games and the only major difference is the departure of Roy Oswalt. The bench and bullpen are better than last season and injured players like Polanco, Utley and Pence should be back to form. The only real question is Ryan Howard – if he comes back at close to form, this team should approach the 100+ win mark once again.