Over and over I have seen media pundits regurgitate polls conducted in the great state of Iowa. Every time one of these polls are released it seems to slingshot someone new to the top and kick the last big winner all the way back to the bottom. Lets take a look at some of the results of previous polls conducted in Iowa this cycle.
In August a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports showed Michele Bachmann in the lead with 22%. There was even a poll from a few weeks prior placing her in the lead with 32%, that poll was administered by Mason-Dixon polling. If you compare those numbers to now, her support has been cut by more than half, putting her at 10%.
Next up was Rick Perry. He tried to steal the lime light by announcing his candidacy on the day the Iowa straw poll results were released. That strategy turned out to be quit effective for him, it just didn’t last long enough. Rick Perry took his lead at 21% on August 19 according to a poll released by Public Policy Polling(PPP). Just a few weeks later he was in a commanding lead with 29% in a poll taken by Rasmussen Reports. Perry was out pacing his nearest opponent, Michele Bachmann, by 11%. Like the poll leaders before him. Gov. Perry’s lead has diminished to 10%.
Then Herman Cain catapulted up to the top. PPP showed Cain sitting at about 30% besting his nearest opponent by 8% in a poll conducted the first week of October. Through a series of ups and downs, Cain still managed to lead the pack in a majority of the polls conducted up until the second week in November. The last poll conducted in Iowa showing Cain lead was done by the polling company. He sat at the top with 20% and having a 1% lead over Newt Gingrich. Shortly after the Cain Train derailed, Iowa polls where showing him at about 8%. Then allegations of sexual misconduct surfaced and Cain found it in his best interest to suspend his presidential campaign.
Where we stand now, Newt Gingrich was leading in the polls. He took his lead in the third week of November, holding about 32% of the vote in a poll done by Rasmussen Reports. As of late Gingrich’s lead has started to slip. He now sits at about 20% in a statistical tie for first place with Congressman Paul and Gov. Romney.
While almost all of the candidates have taken a controlling lead, just to lose it shortly after, Congressman Paul is on the cusp of moving into first place. Polls have consistently showed him in an upward trend. The only thing is, the Iowa caucus is just over two weeks way. In the much anticipated poll conducted by PPP set to be released the first of next week, If Ron Paul can take his lead here, I’m thinking it will be too short of a span for him to lose it come caucus night.
Media pundits have often suggested that a Paul victory in Iowa will lead to the discredit of the caucus all together. That is not fair to the people of Iowa or the Paul campaign to make those claims. If Ron Paul has any hope of being the GOP nominee and going up against President Obama in the general election he must win Iowa.
This begs for the questions, Will the Ron Paul Revolution continue? Will he take the lead in the Iowa polls? Will he win the Iowa caucus? Just In The Nick of Time……