Moderate Republican Nominees Are the Rule, Not the Exception

Now that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has rolled through the early caucus and primary states with victories, it is time for the predictable howls of protest from some on the right wing of the Republican party regarding Romney’s bona fides as a conservative Republican. Romney will be criticized as too moderate to be the nominee of the party of Ronald Reagan. Indeed, Romney has historically been a moderate.

For example, when Romney ran in Massachusetts for the Senate in 1994 and Governor in 2002, he described himself as unapologetically pro-choice on abortion. As late as 2010, Romney was bucking his own party with his stated belief in man-made global warming. Finally, the health care system that Romney authored in Massachusetts while Governor, was reportedly the model for the President’s signature legislative achievement, Obamacare. With this history, Romney has proved to be much more moderate than the typical Republican grass roots voter. What people on both the right and left of the political spectrum seem to forget, however, is that moderation from the Republican nominee is the rule, not the exception. Ronald Reagan was somewhat of an anomaly.

My conclusion seems counterintuitive, does it not? Well, let’s consider the last 40 years of history. In almost every nomination contest, the more conservative candidate lost. In 1976, President Ford successfully sought the Republican nomination after fighting off a hard-charging right-wing challenge from California Governor Ronald Reagan. While Reagan would be the Republican nominee in 1980, it was his more moderate Vice President, George H.W. Bush, who would win the nomination in 1988 against candidates, such as Congressman Jack Kemp, Televangelist Pat Robertson and General Al Haig, running to Bush’s right. In 1992, then-President Bush warded off a spirited challenge from the right by television commentator Patrick Buchanan. In 1996, it was the moderate Senate Republican leader Bob Dole who prevailed against candidates such as the aforementioned Buchanan and Steve Forbes. In 2000, George W. Bush was nominated on a platform of “compassionate conservatism.” Finally, in 2008, the maverick and moderate media darling, Republican Sen. John McCain, had his day in the sun.

So, it is certainly true that the more conservative candidate in the presidential race will almost always be the Republican, and, occasionally, the Republican nominee will be a right-wing conservative. However, history shows that more often than not, the Republican nominee for president will be the more moderate of the Republican candidates running for the nomination. In this way, this year’s likely Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, follows the historical rule, not the exception.


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