In what sounded more like a victory speech, a second place Newt Gingrich pronounced, “It is now clear, this will be a two person race between the conservative leader Newt Gingrich and the Massachusetts moderate.” Either Newt Gingrich has an astute political instinct, or his advisers looked at exit poll data. I’m betting on the latter. With Gingrich’s campaign refusing to accept defeat, frontrunner Mitt Romney can’t even enjoy his victories, and Romney has the base of his party to blame.
Despite a resounding victory in Florida, Romney was unable to attract the most passionate of Republican voters. The former Massachusetts Governor lost the very conservative, most supportive tea partiers, and evangelical vote, according to CNN exit polls. It is true these groups represent the minority of the Republican party, but they represent a loud minority. It will be difficult for Romney to alleviate himself of his Gingrich dilemma without their support.
In a state where Gingrich was walloped by accusations of corruption regarding Freddie and Fannie Mac, he will claim victory with conservatives. This leaves the door open for another Gingrich resurgence, similar to the one he pulled off after ceding his front-runner status preceding the Iowa Caucus, when Romney’s ad machine first began the “lobbyist” allegations. Unfortunately for Romney, the Freddie/Fannie sting wore off and Gingrich took South Carolina. In an uncharacteristic move, Gingrich allowed Romney to recycle the Iowa strategy and lost the two Florida debates. Yet, Romney can’t count on that happening again.
According to a CBS News exit poll, two in three Florida voters said the Florida debates were a factor in determining their vote. There is no doubt Romney cemented his best debate performances in the Sunshine State. It was a matter of necessity, as a loss in Florida would have devastated Romney’s campaign. Romney surely approached the debate as a keen businessman, no doubt studying prior to Jacksonville. At that debate, Romney assaulted Gingrich with new information, even stunning Gingrich, informing him that he too had money vested in government mortgage giants. But Gingrich is a superior debater compared to Romney. Going forward, it will be difficult for Romney to replicate his Florida performances. With most of Gingrich’s dirty laundry aired, voters will once again focus on substance, where Gingrich seems to consistently best Romney.
Another problem for Romney is Rick Santorum. Each day Santorum is in the race represents another opportunity for Romney’s universal healthcare plan to be dismantled. Santorum, by far, is the most conservative candidate left in the race. His words carry weight with the party’s base. Every time Romney approaches a podium, he is sandwiched between two candidates who incessantly attack “Romneycare,” placing more questions in the minds of Republican voters.
With his policies being assailed, Romney had to turn to negative ads in Florida, which translated into a victory, but at a cost. According to MSNBC, Romney’s unfavorable rating has risen from 29 percent to 42 percent among independents. That is a losing strategy for a candidate who has to weather 46 more states. At this point, it’s not over until “Newt Gingrich” sings.