Mitt Romney is Texas Toast
Barring some national skeleton that makes it out of Perry’s closet, Willard Mitt Romney is Texas Toast. National polls indicate that the Republican base has made its choice. Governor Romney is too busy running from his Massachusetts healthcare legislation to challenge Governor Perry on the number of Texans who are uninsured. Mitt Romney will be hard pressed to offer talking points that provide an advantage over Rick Perry on handling the economy.
Governor Romney ran for the US senate. He was the Governor of Massachusetts. Now, he has run for for President twice. Can’t you just hear the tea cups clinging as they sit around laughing at Romney trying to depict Governor Perry as a career politician?.
Even if Romney has an excellent debate performance in September, the Republican base will not reward him as the frontrunner. He is not their cup of tea. Governor Perry’s tough talk and swagger will not turn off the Republican base. It is the base that decides the Republican presidential candidate, not pundits.
Obama Strategists Are On a Path To Repeat Historic Defeat
Hopefully, well before the end of the Republican primary, the Obama administration and the mainstream media will be over thinking Rick Perry is unelectable. This cowboy talking, swagger having, g dropping, George Bush knock-off could not actually be a threat to one of the most intelligent presidents the nation has ever had! Much, probably, like Hillary Clinton and her advisors thought of Senator Obama. Who was he to challenge Hillary Clinton? This freshmen senator had delivered one speech – one speech under his belt, albeit a good speech, no excellent speech. By the time the Clinton political strategists realized the country was hungry for hope and change over experience, it was too late. This may become the fate of the Obama campaign. If reports are true that the administration is hoping Rick Perry gets the Republican nomination, they are in trouble. Overconfidence brought down Hillary Clinton’s presidential run.
Think about the ups and downs of Apple. With a superior operation system, Steve jobs created one of the first successful lines of personal computers. He recognized the money making potential of the mouse’s menu driven graphical interface. Yet, Apple lost ground in personal computing, while Microsoft grew in the 1980s, after Jobs exited Apple. It seems overwhelmingly implausible today that Apple’s board of directors would have actually forced Steve Jobs from the company that he co- founded. Yet, they did. They allowed hubris to deceive them. They felt they knew better about business matters such as finance, production, and marketing. They may have. But, they did not know more about technological innovation, which was ultimately their product.
It is vexing how all the smart people on President Obama’s team allowed him to get so far from his base. Winning independents is a critical component of winning re-election. When the President won in 2008, he won with independents and some republicans. But, the President won as a bold, audacious democrat with a vision of hope and change, not a budget-cutting, conservative seeking the middle-ground.
Perry Understands How to Turn Perceived Weaknesses into Strengths
After Governor Perry announced, the media went wild speculating whether the country is ready for another Texan. They said Perry is the true Bush caricature. So, what did Rick Perry do? He went out and played up his Texas swagger. He put it on display at the soapbox in Iowa. He placed his cowboy boots on a bale of hay and rolled up his sleeves. It got him even more press coverage. His base shot him to frontrunner.
The media asked Perry to define the difference between him and George Bush. Perry said Bush went to Harvard and he went to Texas A & M. That answer probably played well with blue collar workers in Ohio and Pennsylvania who have little fondness for elites.
Rick Perry’s IQ Is Not the Issue
Rick Perry has street smarts. He has known that he would run for president. He waited until he ceremoniously signed Texas’s healthcare compact law. He waited until after his big prayer rally on August 6 to announce. He sent a message to the social conservatives in the Republican base. He managed to garner the media’s attention from the Iowa straw poll without even participating.
The Media Will Help Make Rick Perry a Sympathetic Figure
It has been reported that Governor Perry staffed state boards and commissions with his supporters to move his agenda. If accurate, this indicates that Perry recognized the limited powers of the office of governor of Texas. The reporting angle implied cronyism. Yet, to the Republican base and undecided people, it looks like smart governance when judging a leader by the ability to affect change.
When some pundits call Governor Perry “stupid” and “a fool,” they turnoff people in hard working swing states between the coasts. The caricaturing of Perry as a Texas bumpkin smacks of elitism and makes him interesting.
The current media format is not focused enough to paint a substantive picture of how Perry’s character and policies would impact America. Criticizing Perry about a memo written to Hillary Clinton almost twenty years ago looks paltry. Clearly, then Agriculture Commissioner Perry was angling for the people he represented. Besides, the Tea Party already knows that Perry was a democrat. Unlike Mitt Romney, they believe his republican conversion is sincere. The throw it up against the wall and see if it sticks approach has diminishing returns because it anesthetizes people to criticism against Rick Perry. Pundits need a storyboard. But, they keep looking for the “gotcha.” Perry will make good use of a decoy. Texans like hunting. Squirrel! Squirrel!
Perry Is Authentic, But He Can Pivot
Rick Perry will not take back his statements. He will explain them away with a smile, confidence, and conviction. In the general election, he will be more careful because he has pollsters. The Internet commercial that his campaign released demonstrates that he knows how to appeal to the middle, and yet remain true to himself.
He is talking to everyday Americans about the Social Security Ponzi scheme, not political analysts and policy wonks. What is a Ponzi scheme? Young Republicans have heard for years from their parents that the money they pay into Social Security will not be available for them. They will manage to convince some of their college friends that Rick Perry is the authentic, one who tells it like it is. Many people believe that congress committed fraud by using funds from the Social Security Trust Fund on things other than Social Security benefits.
After his comment about Chairman Bernanke, Perry managed to ‘aw shucks’ his way out of it. With his head hung down briefly, he said, “I got in trouble…” He signaled to those who had been offended, I acknowledge this might have been naughty and not nice. He stated it in such a way that his base laughed off his response as defiance. Then he pivoted and attacked President Obama on the important point being not what you say, but what you do. He finished up touting his job’s record.
Perry Has the Better Jobs Sound Bite
When Rick Perry stands on the stage with President Obama, the moderator will ask, “Where are the jobs?” Rick Perry will simply say in Texas. President Obama better have a grand ole sound bite.
If President Obama starts explaining that the Texas jobs are low wage jobs, jobs created by the Obama stimulus, and government jobs, it will just sound like sour grapes. About 40% of the people will not believe him. Another 15-25% will not be swayed because even a low wage job beats no job in their minds. The country has lived in fear and anger so long that sadly Americans have become conditioned to expect little and get less.
The Secession Comment Will Help Perry More Than Hurt Him
People are too frustrated and scared about their futures to hold that comment against him. Everyone has wished they could get out of a bad relationship or contract at one point or another. Chris Mathews had a guest on his show who jokingly said, the people in New Hampshire wanted to secede. To the average person, it was just Perry was blowing off steam.
Rick Perry Will Charm More Soccer Moms Than He Offends
Perry does retail politics well. If you saw him on the campaign trail in Iowa, he was walking with his arms around a lady’s shoulders like she was he long lost cousin. He can be very charming when he wants. He has chiseled good looks. Let’s face it. Money, confidence, and power are attractive. Perry has them all.
Rick Perry May Raise More Money Than President Obama
Governor Perry has never suffered from a lack of big money backers. He also has all that Texas oil money. The propagation that major Rick Perry contributors got lucrative contracts with the state of Texas will have businesses lining up to support him. On top of that, he will have all those contributions from his loyal Republican base. He can also tap social conservatives that are used to giving in the church, and he introduced himself to thousands of them on August 6.
Healthcare Is A Draw – Where Are the Jobs ?
The Democrats have dodged their legislative accomplishment. Word play such as “Obama cares” is not going to be nearly good enough. Throwing out statistics of the uninsured in Texas will boomerang. Perry will point to the large number of uninsured in the United States. He will shift to the large “Obamacare” costs. It will give Perry a platform to demonize illegal immigration by arguing Texas has so many immigrants driving up its uninsured healthcare numbers. This will tap into the anger of some struggling independents who do not want to pay for someone else.
Governor Perry will muddy the water with the Texas health compact law. He will advocate that the one size fits all approach of the federal government is wasteful.
Education Is A Draw – Where Are the Jobs?
Attacking Rick Perry on spending for Texas students and test scores will not buck him off the bull. He will simply point to the governors and mayors across the country that had to make tough choices. He will blame the lack of revenues for education due to the Obama administration’s poor handling of the economy.
The Obama administration has spent the last year raising awareness that the nation has a problem with its education system. Even our best private school students and Ivy League graduates cannot compete internationally. Again that will be blamed on federal regulations meddling in state education. It will be spun that President Obama has spent massive amounts of money on education. Yet, three years into his administration, the nation is still losing its prominence as a world leader on education. Whether No Child Left Behind was reformed, or not, doesn’t matter. We have lost ground as a nation on education. Therefore, throwing stones at Texas education will not be enough to overcome a bad economy.
Perry Will Suppress the Democratic Vote
Perry knows how to hit people on a gut level. Michelle Bachmann and Newt Gingrich attempted to espouse that they would support African Americans more than President Obama. Rick Perry will not be transparent when he goes after the Democratic base.
In his last gubernatorial race, Governor Perry ran a TV ad with an African American woman decrying his opponent’s support for sanctuary cities that harbored illegal immigrants. The ad went on to assert that illegal immigrants had killed her police officer husband. There will emerge some liberal, progressive, or independent distraction that suppresses voter turnout. President Obama has made it too easy because his base has been disenfranchised.
The Call President Obama Must Answer Is The Call To Lead
The country is now hungering for leadership. This was made evident after President Obama took a hit for overreaching on compromise during the debt-deal. No one wants to follow someone who compromises for compromise sake.
The call for leadership got legs from the right-wing media’s incessant repeating that President Obama did not show leadership. They evangelized President Obama was not showing leadership for such a long time that pundits began analyzing the question of leadership from The White House. His supporters vacillated between defending the President’s leadership and questioning his leadership when it went against his base.
Of course, leadership was not defined by Merriam-Webster. The Republicans defined a lack of leadership as Obama not outlining his positions on issues. Thus, leadership was framed as showing everyone your cards. Then the Republicans could be in a place to come out against his positions. Alas, the leadership call has gotten louder and stronger.
Leadership has been framed as clarity on your position for an issue. You can give some, but you cannot compromise your major tenants. Thus, the country does not trust this president to mean what he says and say what he means. The 2012 working definition of leadership is decisiveness and standing for one’s beliefs. Missing George Bush, yet? Enter Rick Perry.