Four polls from Real Clear Politics are showing an overall average of a 1.5-point Mitt Romney lead over Rick Santorum. Three of the four polls which indicates a Romney lead also surveyed “likely Republican” voters. The exception is the Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll which shows a 2-point lead for Santorum. What is interesting is whom Mitchell/Rosetta Stone surveyed in the poll. Rather than questioning only “likely Republican voters,” the Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll surveyed a more broadly defined “likely” primary voter that includes both Republicans and Democrats. The difference could be an important factor given that the Michigan Republican primary is an open primary where citizens of both parties can vote.
David Lightman of the McClatchy Newspapers wrote of how Reagan Democrats are torn between Romney and Santorum. Regardless of how they may vote in the general election, these conservative Democrats have a sincere patriotic interest in selecting the best Republican to run against President Obama.
The question is how many liberal Democrats will vote in the primary. Many are salivating for a general election between Obama and Santorum. They believe Romney is a stronger candidate with his economic message while Santorum is seen as a social conservative on the extreme right wing of the GOP. They see an Obama/Santorum election similar to the 1964 election between Lyndon Johnson and Barry Goldwater. Goldwater was seen as an extreme conservative Republican nominee who turned off the independents and lost in landslide to the incumbent LBJ. In hopes for such a scenario, the liberal organization Daily Kos launched Operation Hilarity, which urges liberal democrats to crossover and vote for Santorum in the Republican primary.
Given that the race is so close, even just a handful of liberal votes could rob Romney of a victory, prolong the primary season, and further weaken the eventual GOP nominee.