The AFC West has seen its share of ups and downs this season with quarterback turmoil everywhere (2 injuries, 1 un-retirement, 1 intradivision trade, 1 Tebow, and a River of interceptions), but all that commotion has led to the tightest division in football (tied with the equally tumultuous NFC East) where only three games separate first and last place. With every team still in contention for the division title, we’ll need to take a deeper look at each team’s schedule to see who has a realistic shot at taking it home.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are a shell of their 2010 selves, riddled with injuries to key skill players. They never looked like a team that was going to repeat their division title, but without Jamaal Charles and with Tyler Palko at the helm, those chances went from “probably not” to “not a chance”. Standing at 4-7 and tied in last place, they would need to mount a five-game winning streak to even have a remote chance of catching the 7-4 Raiders. While the Bears matchup is now winnable without Cutler at quarterback, there’s still the matter of the Jets, Packers, and the top two teams in the AFC West, the Broncos and Raiders. Three of those games are away, making the task nearly impossible. I could definitely see the Chiefs losing all of these games, but I’m going to predict one more win for them, a final record of 5-11.
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have been a lot of fun for me this year. In Los Angeles, we’re within earshot of San Diego sports radio, and you can believe they’re looking to spread the blame around for the abysmal state of their franchise. In all likelihood, we’ll be seeing a new head coach, new General Manager, and lots of fresh faces on the field next year, but until then, this team has to find the strength to show up and end the season on a high note. With an unbelievable six-game losing streak on the line, look for the Chargers to snap it in Jacksonville on Monday night. This should be a big relief for all of San Diego, but the rest of the schedule gets much harder with Buffalo and Baltimore at home, and then on the road to Detroit and Oakland to finish it off. I only see one of those four games going the Chargers way, probably Buffalo, possibly Oakland, a final record of 6-10.
Denver Broncos
Nothing fuels more debate right now than Tebow Time. It’s been a ton of fun watching the media eat its words as Tebow has gone 5-1 as a starter. Whether divine intervention or just a shot of inspiration, this team is to be feared. In reality, the team’s success of late has more to do with the play on the defensive side of the ball that keeps Denver in the game long enough to let Tebow do his thing. Fortunately, Denver probably has the easiest remaining schedule in the AFC West with three home games and two away. Their easiest game is actually an away game, this week at Minnesota. While the Vikings have played better football lately, it’s still not good football and they should fall, hopefully in dramatic, fourth-quarter fashion to the Broncos. Home against Chicago next is also very winnable without Jay Cutler, but the visiting Patriots should end the winning streak at six if it still stands. Traveling to Buffalo on Christmas Eve is never a fun trip to make, but the running strength of the Broncos will keep them competitive. A home game against the Chiefs should be a ‘W’ in what the Broncos hope will be a division-clinching game. I’m predicting they go 3-2 the rest of the way (losing to New England and either Chicago or Buffalo) for a final record of 9-7.
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are in charge of their own destiny at 7-4. With Carson Palmer getting better each week, a wide receiving corps on the mend, and Darren McFadden getting closer to rejoining the team, the Raiders are one team that should get better down the stretch.They get a tougher than expected away game in Miami that they need to win, followed by two very tough games at Green Bay and at home against Detroit. I’m sure they’re praying that Ndamukong Suh’s two-game suspension gets delayed a game so they don’t have to face him, but either way, the Raiders could easily be at a precarious 8-6 record after these three games, winning only in Miami. They should still be in control at this point, but would face two must-win games in Kansas City and at home against the Chargers. I see the Raiders going 3-2 to finish the season at a respectable 10-6, which should be enough to win the division.
The Final Standings
Oakland Raiders 10-6
Denver Broncos 9-7
San Diego Chargers 6-10
Kansas City Chiefs 5-11
But What If…
Of course anything can happen in football, but the most likely alternative to the scenario presented would be Denver winning one more to tie Oakland at 10-6, Oakland losing one more to tie Denver at 9-7, or the teams swapping records and Denver winning the division outright at 10-6. All three of these scenarios favor Denver as the tie-breakers look good for Denver. Since Denver and Oakland split the series this year, the next tie-breaker is the division record. At 3-2 in their division, Denver only needs to beat Kansas City to go 4-2, which Oakland can only match this by winning their last two games (KC and SD). If they happen to have the same division record, the next tie-breaker is their record against common opponents outside their division (AFC East and NFC North). My final standings above had both teams going 4-4 against these teams, which would mean there wouldn’t be a tie-breaker, so to shake things up, we’d need to see Denver beat both Chicago and Buffalo, Oakland lose to Miami, or Oakland lose one of their final division games. While I don’t see Denver pulling off those wins, Oakland could certainly blow a few games, but for the first time in awhile, it’s their division to lose.