I remember before the 2010 season started, I looked at the 49ers first five games of the season and I hoped (and believed) that they would be 2-3. The game I thought the 49ers would win for sure was a road game against the Chiefs, who were bad the year before. But coming off an emotional 3-point loss to the Saints in Week 2, the 49ers got blasted by an improved Chiefs team.
So when I looked at 2011 schedule, again I saw a Week 3 road game against a bad team, and I marked it down as a win. But the Bengals are playing a lot better than they did last year. No, I don’t expect them to be the surprise playoff team the Chiefs were, but any 49er fan who thinks that this will be a Niner blowout is underrating the Bengals.
Andy Dalton has played very well in his first two games. We all know that the Browns and Broncos don’t have world-class defenses, but still Dalton surprised me with his 332-yard, two-touchdown performance in a loss to Denver. The Bengals were playing from behind, and Dalton showed he can beat an NFL defense with his arm.
Meanwhile, the 49ers blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead against Dallas. The secondary was shredded and the 49ers did not have one 3rd down conversion in the second half. After two games, the 49ers have the second-fewest yards per game.
Keys to the game for San Francisco
Second half offense
You could argue that San Francisco’s defense has been bad in the second halves of the first two games, but not as bad as the offense. The 49ers are being outplayed and outcoached after halftime and will have trouble winning another game if this trend continues. To beat the Bengals, the 49ers need sustained second half drives with at least one ending in a touchdown.
Don’t let Dalton get comfortable
I have already given Dalton some praise, but he converted just one third-down pass last week, and that was ultimately a big reason why the Bengals lost. I suspect Dalton will face some third and longs, and if he converts them the Bengals will win. The return of Shawntae Spencer and Dashon Goldson could help the 49ers after allowing 427 passing yards a week ago, but more importantly, the pass rush must be better.
Run, Frank, Run
Without Braylon Edwards, Alex Smith may struggle to attack the Bengals secondary. Michael Crabtree is expected to play, but he wouldn’t be a good bet against Leon Hall even if he was 100 percent. The 49ers need a 100-yard game from Frank Gore, which means the offensive line has to play better.
Prediction
It feels like the Bengals and the 49ers are the same team. Both teams want to play from ahead and run the ball down the throat of the opponent, yet neither has the offensive line to do so. Also, both teams feature a quarterback they won’t unleash unless they are down by a couple scores. So I don’t see either team breaking away from the other. Sounds like a game decided in the final seconds. I’ll take the Bengals to get an early lead and hold on to it late.
Bengals 19 49ers 17