Prior to the Bowl Championship Series (BCS), it was not uncommon for two or more teams to claim a National Championship in the same year. With 120 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams, who only play 11-12 games per year, how can you agree on a single champion? Enter the BCS, with a goal of ranking all the teams such that the two best could meet head-to-head, determining a single undisputed National Champion on the field of play.
With the BCS goal in mind, there are at least two reasons why an LSU-Alabama rematch in New Orleans would be terrible for college football.
1. If Alabama were to beat LSU in the BCS Championship Game, all Crimson Tide fans would be proclaiming their superiority and the Championship Trophy would be headed to Tuscaloosa. However, LSU fans would have every right to argue that the teams had each beaten the other one time, so the only way to settle it would be to play a third game (which would never happen). Forget about the idea of having an undisputed champion.
2. The BCS Championship Game is supposed to be a matchup between the two best FBS teams in the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). Should LSU and Alabama really be ranked #1 and #2?
We teach our youth that winning is not everything and that’s a very good philosophy for life. In determining a champion in any sports competition, however, winning really is the key. Who are the “winningest” teams in the FBS for 2011? Since teams do not all play the same number of games, I have decided to give each team a point for winning a game against an FBS opponent, then multiply this by their winning percentage. The top eight “winningest” teams are:
LSU. 10-0 (Northwestern State is not an FBS team, so does not count). 10 pts X 1.000 = 10 pts.
Houston is also 10-0, with a total of 10 pts.
Oklahoma State and Stanford are 10-1 (neither played any non-FBS teams). 10 X .909 = 9.09 pts.
Alabama, Arkansas, Virginia Tech and Boise State are all 9-1 (BSU did not play outside the FBS). 9 X .900 = 8.1 pts.
Distinguishing the best teams in the country needs one more ingredient, strength of schedule. As teams play opponents both from within their own conference, as well as from other conferences, I use two sets of strength numbers. The first is the winning percentage of Non-Conference opponents against all other FBS teams. Adding this formula to the above scores, these eight teams now rank as follows:
LSU, non-conference opponents were 20-7 = .741 X 10 pts above = 7.41 pts.
Boise State, 31-13 = .705 X 8.1 = 5.711 pts.
Oklahoma State, 18-12 = .600 X 9.09 = 5.454 pts.
Houston, 16-14 = .533 X 10 = 5.33 pts.
Virginia Tech, 19-12 = .613 X 8.1 = 4.965 pts.
Alabama, 16-12 = .571 X 8.1 = 4.625 pts.
Stanford, 7-12 = .368 X 9.09 = 3.345 pts.
Arkansas, 10-19 = .345 X 8.1 = 2.795 pts.
I didn’t realize Boise State played such a strong schedule, or that Arkansas was just playing cream puffs (ouch!).
One final strength factor is for conference opponents (surely this must favor the dominant SEC). I use winning percentage for conference opponents in their non-conference games (since within the conference there would be as many losses as wins). Adding this factor, we now get a simple “final” ranking of these eight teams as:
1. LSU conference opponents 16-4 = .800 X 7.41 = Total Points of 5.928.
2. Oklahoma State, 15-3 = .833 X 5.454 = 4.543.
3. Alabama, 17-2 = .895 X 4.625 = 4.139.
4. Virginia Tech, 11-7 = .611 X 4.965 = 3.034.
5. Boise State, 9-10 = .474 X 5.711 = 2.707.
6. Arkansas, 16-3 = .842 X 2.795 = 2.353.
7. Stanford, 9-10 = .474 X 3.345 = 1.586.
8. Houston, 6-18 = .250 X 5.33 = 1.333.
If we apply the same formula to all the teams that have two losses, I’m sure the above would not be the Top Eight. This simply suggests that Alabama is not a clearly superior candidate over Oklahoma State. Also we must take into account that a victory over Oklahoma would strengthen Oklahoma State more than a win against Auburn would help Alabama. Virginia Tech, with two more victories, might be able to move ahead of Alabama also, as the Crimson Tide has only Auburn remaining on their schedule.
We hear all the time about the strength of the SEC, and I agree that overall it is probably the strongest in the nation. However, take a look at this year’s schedule. LSU and Alabama have avoided both Georgia and South Carolina, feasting on the conference’s worst teams. So, just because you hail from the SEC does not automatically mean you play a monster schedule.
I’m going to enjoy the games this weekend, and for the good of NCAA College Football cheer for LSU on Friday, Auburn on Saturday.
Source: espn.com