It’s fascinating, from a purely statistical standpoint, that there’s an argument over whether or not the Minnesota Twins’ 600-homer hitting Jim Thome will be inducted to the hall of fame. It’s a true historian vs. geek argument, the kind that have been putting wives and philosophy students alike into a nap-like state since the beginning of time.
As for credentials, awards, and intangibles, I can only guess at what a voting committee might think. Yeah, Thome has no MVP, no ring, and only a handful of All-Star appearances – a total lack of the key ingredients that make up a dominant player.
But when you use the right numbers, Thome could be ARod – if it weren’t for Barry.
Take a gander at the stats in Figure 1: JIm Thome vs. Alex Rodriguez – 1994 to 2010. The stats show Thome vs. fellow 600+ man and Cooperstown-lock Alex Rodriguez, and we’ll chop off the first three years of Thome’s career (thereby conceding the completely inarguable fact that the velocity of ARod’s upward mobility is meteoric) and discount this current year as well, as it’s still being played out.
Let’s call this these players’ “prime.”
Beyond the basic symmetry of the trajectory of the numbers, you’ll note that games and home runs are very close on a per season basis (134 and 34 vs. 135.5 and 36). Sure, ARod has more RBI, runs, and extra-base hits. And also a better batting average.
OK, so right before I talked myself back out of this argument, I asked: If ARod was that much better at the plate, why is Thome’s On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS), so much higher than ARod’s (.964 to .916)?
Simple enough. It’s the walks.
Thome was in the MLB Top 10 for walks 10 times from 1995 to 2006. ARod was in the Top 10 once, in 2005, one of only two years Thome wasn’t. Furthermore, looking at Figure 2: 2002 & 2003 Top 10 Walks, Thome led that Top 10 in home runs in both 2002 and 2003, and would have led it in 2001 and 2000 were it not for Barry Bonds.
That sounds dominant.
This should be figured out by the first ballot. The numbers show that Jim Thome was feared and, in the prime of his prime anyway, as feared as Barry Bonds. Combine that with 600 home runs and he’s a lock. If he picks up a ring on his way out, he’s a first ballot lock.
Statistically speaking, of course.