We’ve all heard the cliché story of how an under-appreciated spouse runs off with the rich doctor from California, leaving behind their family for a “better life.” No one thinks it will happen to them…until it actually does.
After an 11-year run, the Albert Pujols-Cardinals marriage is over, and the Cardinals and their fans are left picking up the pieces. Some are in disbelief, but rest assured, he’s signed the ‘divorce’ papers and packed his bags. Now the Cardinals are like the single parent and have to find a way to explain it to the kids of Cardinal Nation.
It started great in the summer of 2001, when Albert swept the Cardinals off their feet with his incredible rookie campaign. From that moment on, it was pure magic. He became Prince Albert, the prince of thieves who stole the hearts of an entire city. After a rather short engagement, they were married to the tune of an eight-year, $100 million contract. During that time they flourished into a very prosperous family; building a new home (Busch Stadium III) and decorating the walls with three NL Championships and two World Series titles. Albert even added some hardware of his own, in the form of three NL MVP awards. It was blissful for all, including the children of Cardinal Nation.
But somewhere along the line, it began to grow stale. The feeling that the frugal Cardinals ownership had begun to under-appreciate their beautiful spouse seemed to spread throughout the neighborhood. It was time to renew those vows, and Pujols was ready to see what exactly he meant to the family he had helped blossom. However, neither side seemed overly eager to work on their relationship. After a few half-assed efforts in the 2010-2011 offseason, both sides seemed to give up on one another. Deciding to do what’s ‘best for the kids,’ they were going to keep things together until the next offseason.
And did what was best, indeed. In one of the most amazing underdog stories in sports history, Pujols and the Cardinals brought home their second World Series title in five years. Emotions were running high, and it looked like the parents were back on the right track to making this a happy family once again. But when the dust settled, the trial separation became a reality. Pujols was being courted by a few very eligible suitors, while the Cardinals stood by, kept the house in order and hoped for the best.
How did it go so wrong? Why didn’t the Cardinals try harder? Was he just being selfish? Who is to blame? What will happen to the Cardinals?
One can’t overlook the role that Pujols’ agent Dan Lozano has played in this debacle. Anyone who has experienced baseball in St. Louis knows that most fans here would have taken a bullet for El Hombre. Since the beginning of the new contract negotiations, Lozano has quietly fanned the flames on the idea that the Cardinals had not, and were not properly showing their appreciation for him. However, Lozano himself negotiated the original $100 million deal that kept Pujols in St. Louis thus far. Ever since, many have believed that he was positioning for Albert’s 2011-12 negotiations, where the Cardinals would pony up to an outrageous contract; an obligation for getting the hometown discount in 2004 and a necessity to keeping his legacy in St Louis for good.
The Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and President Bill DeWitt didn’t seem to buy into Lozano’s backward logic, and rightfully so. The small-to-mid-market franchise does boast a big-market fanbase, resulting in an uncommonly swollen payroll for a team in a city of this size. The team maintained that they wanted to invest as much as reasonably possible to keep Albert a Cardinal for the rest of his career, and a St. Louis icon for life. Consequently, they couldn’t justify making an excessive commitment based solely on loyalty and past performance while neglecting the business sense to plan for the future.
Wisely played… But with the annual salary shed due to manager Tony LaRussa’s retirement and supplementary World Series revenues, the team’s argument became more porous. The idea of taking a deal for 10-20% below market value began to seem more like an “indentured servant” than a ‘hometown discount.’
[Enter Mozeliak stage right, to inadvertently assist Lozano fanning the flames.]
Like spoiling milk, the Cardinals left their originally speculated nine-year, nearly $200 million offer on the table for the better part of a year, including the entire month after his free agency began. After losing the advantage of having sole negotiating rights and hoping for him to accept a hometown discount (nostalgic/low-ball) offer, Mozeliak and the Cardinals decided against getting ahead of the game with a new, more serious offer. As prudent as it seemed to avoid entering into a bidding war with themselves, the unintended result was borderline insulting. If Pujols’ wasn’t interested in the offer in February, it surely doesn’t seem like a good starting point in November.
The loyal St. Louisans have always been the driving force for this team, consistently drawing over 3 million fans to the stadium annually. If the fans wanted Albert, the Cardinals probably should have gotten them Albert. They needed to feed the rabid, salivating Cardinal Nation. Now, the club is facing a fall out, a revolt by their ever-loyal fans. Even bringing in a statistically equivalent (or superior) combination platter of players as a replacement likely won’t be enough to appease the beast.
Offers from other teams turned up the heat on the Cardinals at the winter meetings. It is rumored that the team countered late in the game with an awkward 5 year, $130M offer that was not well received by Pujols. Between the Angels offer and Albert’s eventual decision, the Cardinals finally spoke directly with Pujols and company. Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post Dispatch reported that DeWitt and Mozeliak upped their bid and offered a number of solutions. Packages ranged from a seven year deal to ultimately a 10 year, $210M-$220M proposal, in what they thought could be enough to stay competitive for the slugger. “Competitive” was a keyword throughout the process. It was believed that Pujols would only leave St. Louis if an offer by an attractive team was far better than the Cardinals. From a purely speculative standpoint, could the Cards have maxed out at nine years, $234 million, with a mutual option for the 10th year (and a $9M buyout)? This would have guaranteed the average annual value of the deal to be $27 million per year, and kept the team much more “competitive” with the Angels. To make up for its shortcoming of a guaranteed 10th year, it could have included VERY lucrative incentives for milestones such as home runs No. 500, 600, etc, and his 3,000th hit. All are milestones well within reach for a player of his caliber over the next 10 years and should have come in a Cardinals uniform. Deferred money and/or a post-career stake in Cardinals ownership were also rumored to be in play, but no one knows if/how they were offered. Some sources have reported that the Angels inclusion of a ten-year agreement for ‘personal services’ after the $254M contract’s 2021 expiration was the deciding factor, while Mozeliak and the Cardinals were unwilling to make that happen. This perceived lack concern by the Cardinals (or possibly the simple generosity of the Angels) for Pujols and his family after his retirement was reasonably viewed as the final straw that broke the Cardinals’ back.
What if, what if, what if…
He couldn’t possibly leave, could he? We asked ourselves this time and time again. It became our mantra. As days turned into weeks, there wasn’t even so much as a phone call in either direction. The kids saw nothing but smiles from both sides at the end of October, and it all looked so promising. But the time came when the Cardinals efforts to keep Pujols from leaving were too little, too late. The rich suitor from California confirmed what Pujols and his camp had said from the beginning. That he was the best, and deserved to be treated and shown he was worth the investment. Someone would do just that, and that “someone” was the Los Angeles Angels.
In hindsight, the Cardinals’ wait-and-counter strategy seemed more like a half-assed way to deflect accountability and say… Hey, we gave it our best shot. He just chased the money. Something that a lot of fans are having a hard time buying into. “One of the things we’ve tried to really focus on over the last four or five years is really make sure that our minor league system is going to be able to produce some everyday players or middle- to top-of-the-rotation type starters,” Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said. “Happy to say, we believe our pipeline is very strong, and so if this is an Albert-less club in the future, we still think we have a lot of positives coming.” Sound like they had a five-year plan?
On the other side, Pujols can’t be totally indemnified of all perceived “wrongdoings” here. He expressed a desire to stay, but seemingly did nothing to facilitate that endgame. In the end, a man can only be compared to his peers and the men that came before him. That promotes the salary figures we see today, and this ego-driven contract was no different. Pujols can act as coy as he wants, but everyone (including himself) was well aware of the financial constraints and capabilities the Cardinals are under regarding payroll. The future handcuffs this contract could put on the team were transparently obvious to even the most casual of fans. If indeed his motivation was more influenced by winning than money, why did the extra $2-3M per year become an issue? We have heard that the Marlins offer was in the 10 year, $275M range, and likely made it the largest contract to date. There is his scapegoat: He chose a smaller contract to play for a winning franchise, right? Wrong. The Marlins were not willing to offer a full no-trade clause. He chose the full no-trade clause to guarantee his future.
Was this departure his final gift to the city? Possibly. In a 2009 interview when asked why he hadn’t pursued an extension, Pujols stated that “Money is not everything. It’s better to have a competitive team that can go to the postseason.” He may have considered that leaving the Cardinals now, without handcuffing them to a contract that could push the team’s finances to the limit, was the best opportunity for a team of this size to perennially remain atop the NL Central. By inking the lengthy deal with an AL team, he maximizes the longevity of his career by splitting time between DH and 1B. Moreover, he would limit his exposure to St. Louis, thus making the break much cleaner. (No one should ever want to be forced into seeing their ‘ex’ strutting around with their rich, new suitor all summer, right?)
So, boys and girls… That brings us to the million dollar question, “How will the Cardinals manage to pick up the pieces?” Well kids, they’re going to start dating again and find somebody new. There are plenty of free agents still on the market this winter. While very few of which seem to be a good fit for the Cardinals, there are plenty of holes that the Cardinals need filled.
The most pressing need is a top-tier shortstop, and/or second baseman. It was made obvious what a good shortstop can do for a club when Rafael Furcal took over in August. Not to be overly critical of Tyler Greene, but his potential hasn’t translated to the majors. Dubbing Greene the opening day starter in 2012 looked more like a last resort than a changing of the guard. Jimmy Rollins, another Lozano client, appeared to be the knee-jerk reaction by most fans after losing Pujols. The five-year, “lucrative” asking price (rumored to be around $13M per year) for a 33-year-old shortstop on the decline is something the Cards should avoid like the plague. Thankfully the Cardinals made their first intelligent move of the winter, opting to bring Furcal back for two more years. Furcal’s new deal is estimated at a very reasonable $7M per year; a much more palatable deal for someone expected to be fundamentally similar to Rollins.
With the additional flexibility the Cardinals now have, they could pursue the super-utilityman Michael Cuddyer. Traditionally a corner outfielder, he also has spent time at first and second base. While certainly a more expensive upgrade, Cuddyer could offer the power St. Louis has lacked at second base, provided he can make a successful full-time transition. Instead, it might prudent to reallocate that money toward other resources and bring back Skip Schumaker, the bargain-version of Cuddyer. He’s been a solid second baseman, but nothing to write home about considering his struggles against left-handed pitching. His biggest value lies in the depth he adds as a very serviceable fourth outfielder. (At the time of publication, B.J. Raines of Fox Sports Midwest is reporting Schumaker has agreed to a 2 year deal with the Cardinals.)
Next in line is an above-average outfielder, preferably one who can play center. Here’s where it gets tricky…Allen Craig’s development last season and clutch playoff performance solidified him as the opening day favorite in right field. Recent reports are saying that his November knee surgery will require him to miss spring training and possibly the first month or so of the season. While signing Carlos Beltran seems more and more like a good idea, you have to consider that he’s 34 and is only a year removed from surgery on both of his knees. The Cards caught lightning in a bottle last offseason, signing Berkman in a similar situation. Making a gamble on Beltran appears less dangerous. Unfortunately, Beltran’s representation situation took an unforeseen turn in November. The free agent decided to replace super agent, spin doctor and master negotiator Scott Boras with the most recent “Cards’ persona-non-grata” Dan Lozano. Dealing with Lozano for another top-dollar free agent may pose a pride issue for the Cardinals brass.
Which brings up a subsequent dilemma: Pujols leaving means Jon Jay and possibly Craig, may see fewer pitches to hit. While Jay is outstanding defensively, he has yet to prove he’s a viable option as an everyday centerfielder, especially against left-handed pitching. Another issue is the health of David Freese. If he can keep it together, the kid proved he can flat-out rake. But the risk that any or all of these potential starters could turn out to be an Ankiel-esque flop is cause for concern. The only alternative we have for any of these three is Matt Carpenter, a slugging third baseman similar to Freese’s expectations. Needless to say, there’s a lot riding on red and the Cards aren’t holding such a tall stack of chips anymore.
Shrewdly extending Berkman through 2012 as the fallback plan, should Pujols take his talents elsewhere, proved to pay off. While this may be the short-term answer to questions of pursuing free agent Prince Fielder, two long-term solutions lie within. Even though Allen Craig is serviceable at first base as well, another option is Matt Adams. The highly-regarded power hitting first base prospect spent 2011 at Double-A Springfield, where he posted an impressive .300-32-101 stat line over 115 games. Either option looks to be an effective replacement, should Berkman decide to leave or retire at the end of his contract.
Lastly, the bullpen could use a couple of fresh arms to replace aging relievers Octavio Dotel and Arthur Rhodes. JC Romero and Mike Gonzalez have come up in discussion, but the farm system has also provided an interesting opportunity. Top prospects Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez are expected to see innings from the bullpen in 2012, and hopefully follow the Wainwright blueprint to compete for a spot in the 2013 rotation. If Mozeliak can’t find suitable replacements in time for spring training, the timetable for one or both young guns could see a shift.
Let’s not forget that Matt Holliday is no slouch. Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia are electric, and Adam Wainwright will back with a new lease on life (and a new ligament). And while the upcoming season looks promising, there’s a possibility that next offseason will prove to be just as trying. Hopefully Mozeliak won’t let Wainwright or Molina’s extensions end up playing out as badly as Pujols’. Rumors will swirl that Molina could follow his good friend Albert to SoCal, and that Lance Berkman may decide to hang up his cleats. Only time will tell.
On the other hand, the Cardinals may serve themselves better by standing-pat for a season and taking notes for next winter, given how the Angels and Marlins have ransacked this offseason. ESPN’s Buster Olney ranks the 2013 monster free agent crop’s top 10 as: Cole Hamels, Josh Hamilton, Matt Cain, Mike Napoli, Andre Eithier, John Danks, Zack Greinke, Michael Bourn, Howie Kendrick and B.J. Upton. Surely not all will make it to free agency, but the next 10-15 down the list aren’t chopped liver. Colby Lewis, Dan Haren, and James Shields are top-tier pitchers, in addition to stud bats such as David Wright, Stephen Drew and Brian McCann that seemed to get lost in Olney’s shuffle.
So many of us – for the sake of this charade are the kids in this situation – are looking for answers. It couldn’t have been OUR fault. We worshiped him. We built him a statue. In our eyes, he could do no wrong, and some of us still believe that to be the case. But some others will see it as an abandonment for more money and greener pastures. Many will say we got the best years out of him and it was the perfect time to part ways. As a fan of both sides, this kid thinks it may have been a stalemate. Not a win-win, or even a lose-lose for both sides. Just a good old-fashioned, We wanted to stay together, but we couldn’t see eye-to-eye anymore. It just wouldn’t have worked out.
There were good times and even greater memories in the past 11 seasons at two different Busch Stadiums. The Cardinals will live on. A very good Cardinals team will take the field in 2012; albeit a team that will still feel like something is missing. And undoubtedly there will be some unrest, a lot of good baseball, and a tough road ahead for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2012. But most notably, a city will have to find a way to move on, to move forward without its King.
Godspeed, El Hombre. Godspeed.