10 Years in Afghanistan Later, Most Americans Still Uneasy with a Long-Term War

ANALYSIS | It’s a long-standing truism that wars bring people together, but over time, they can also tear them apart. The 10th anniversary of the day the U.S. and its allies invaded Afghanistan, Oct. 7, will not be marked with speeches and parades, but with a weary disbelief that we, as a nation, are still engaged in the fight.

Before the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the American government tried to address growing concerns about militant groups like al-Qaida with diplomacy. The 9/11 Commission concluded that these efforts were largely ignored by the leadership in Afghanistan, Pakistan and even Saudi Arabia.

Some went so far as to suggest that the emphasis on talking the problem away had emboldened the radicals to further action.

Most Americans didn’t take the notion that we could be primary players in a long-term war seriously. When the war started, the disbelief was palpable. The events of 9/11 were a wake-up call after which support for the invasion was strong.

A Gallup poll conducted in late October 2001 showed that 80 percent of Americans favored the deployment of ground troops in Afghanistan. Over the ensuing decade, Americans became increasingly divided between those who worried about the continued terrorist threat, and those who felt our money could be better spent at home. As economic conditions declined and the death toll rose, anti-war sentiment grew.

Ten years later, even veterans, normally the staunchest supporters of any military action, don’t believe the war has been cost effective. A recent Pew Research Center study found that only 50 percent of post 9/11 veterans felt that, considering costs versus benefits, the war in Afghanistan had been “worth it.”

In January 2010, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that $345 billion had been spent on the war in Afghanistan, according to Reuters. Even more startling, CBO budget figures for 2010 show that national defense spending claimed 20 percent of the entire budget.

Is this level of spending a true reflection of American priorities? A Sept 2011 Gallup poll shows that Americans considerer jobs and unemployment the most pressing issue facing our country today. Thirty-nine percent of respondents ranked it No. 1. A distant 3 percent consider “wars or fear of war” most important.

It’s no surprise that a growing majority of Americans believe it’s time to start withdrawing troops. A CBS News poll released this week confirms that 62 percent of respondents “said troop levels should be decreased immediately.”

President Obama plans to bring most of the troops home by the end of 2014, although he has been criticized for taking so long to do it. During his 2008 presidential campaign candidate Obama pledged to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq “within 16 months,” according to The New York Times . Over three years later we are still fully engaged.

What caused the change in plans? Perhaps he knows something we don’t.

Most analysts agree the American military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq has produced positive results. The Taliban and al Qaeda have been checked, although they still exert a considerable influence in the region. Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki are dead.

There is a new government in place in Afghanistan, although some experts, like Rajan Menon, Chairman of International Relations at Lehigh University, believe the current leadership is a liability, not an accomplishment.

“The Taliban’s tenacity is not the main problem;” Menon told CNN , “it’s that Afghans overwhelmingly (and rightly) regard President Hamid Karzai’s regime as irredeemably inept and corrupt.”

An unpopular regime is a dangerous thing in an area where militant groups lie in wait for an opportunity to gain power. Karzai’s government could be overthrown by something much worse, or it could degrade into an onerous military dictatorship.

It wouldn’t be the first time we have trained an army that was turned against us by the government we were trying to help.

What to do? Diplomacy failed ten years ago in part because the principles didn’t believe the US would back it up with military force. Perhaps it would be more effective today, at least with the established governments. There’s no discussing policy with a man who’s willing to blow himself up to make his point, and there are still plenty of problems in Afghanistan.

Seventy-five percent of us believe that we are still in danger of terrorist attacks. History tell us that until and unless the region stabilizes, we are.

 


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