When the New York Yankees traded designated hitter and possible catcher Jesus Montero, along with pitcher Hector Noesi to the Seattle Mariners for pitchers Michael Pineda and Jose Campos, the “expert” consensus was that the Yankees had made a great trade.
Only time will tell since the primary players are untried youngsters, but there are rumblings in some quarters that maybe, just maybe, the Yankees should have held onto Montero since top hitters are getting harder to find.
The recent trend has been that offense had decreased, which may be a result of MLB’s drug testing program. During the Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro era, offense increased greatly. It appears that random drug testing is working.
One example of less offense is that team slugging percentage dropped below .400 in 2011 for the first time since 1992. Last year, 28 players slugged at least .500 compared to 47 players only five years ago.
In 2000, American League teams averaged 5.30 runs a game. In 2011, they averaged 4.46 runs a game.
Jesus Montero might be an outstanding hitter along the lines of Mike Piazza. In his 18 games with the Yankees last season, Montero batted .328/.406/.590 with four home runs in 69 plate appearances.
In his five minor league seasons, Montero batted .308/.366/.501.
The problem is that Montero may never be more than an adequate defensive catcher, which means that the Yankees traded a player who will be primarily a designated hitter for a young pitcher that may become an ace.
Pineda had an excellent first half of 2011 with the Mariners, but he tailed off dramatically the second half of the season. At the All-Star break, Pineda was 8-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 113 innings.
He didn’t win a game the final two months of the season and finished at 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA.
Assuming both Montero and Pineda reach their potential, the question becomes will the Yankees be better off with a top slugger or a pitching ace?
From the 1950s to the late 1970s, the rule of thumb for teams was to almost never trade an everyday player for a pitcher. In 1964, the Chicago Cubs traded Lou Brock to the St. Louis Cardinals for pitcher Ernie Broglio and in 1965, the Cincinnati Reds sent Frank Robinson to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for pitcher Milt Pappas. We all know how those deals turned out.
Over the last 20 years, the position has changed. Following the 1994 strike, offense increased greatly while pitching was at a premium. The fact that offense has decrease the last few years changes nothing.
Pitching wins world championships. If Pineda remains healthy, the Yankees did the right thing.