Handicapping the Republican Nomination After Iowa

The results from the Iowa caucuses are finally in. On the Democratic side, to no one’s least surprise, President Obama was awarded all the delegates. On the Republican side, things are more interesting. The results:
Mitt Romney: 30,015 (24.6%) Rick Santorum 30,007 (24.5%) Ron Paul 26,219 (21.4%) Newt Gingrich 16,251 (13.3) Rick Perry 12,604 (10.3%) Michele Bachmann 6,073 (5.0%) Jon Huntsman 745 (0.6%)

Bachmann has already withdrawn from the race for the Republican nomination, although she has not yet endorsed anyone.

What do these results mean? For Rick Santorum, they are fantastic results. Operating on a shoestring budget and given little chance by most pundits, he essentially tied the well-financed and organized Mitt Romney, and beat the well-financed and organized Ron Paul. No other candidate can be pleased with these results.

The most disappointed, clearly, is Bachmann. Although she led the field at one point (ad did Perry) she is the first to bow out (after Cain, who left for other reasons). But these results are clearly bad news for Romney and Paul and Perry. They mean less for Huntsman, who did not campaign in Iowa and is devoting his efforts to New Hampshire, which is next up. The most interesting case is Gingrich; some people doubted he was seriously expecting to win the Republican nomination, and these results don’t make it any more likely that he will. But he could drop out and endorse someone, hoping to be vice president.

Where do the Republicans go from here?

I think Bachmann’s support mainly goes to Santorum. One key question is whether she endorses him. Because, while Bachmann did very poorly in Iowa, she is a formidable money-raiser and has excellent name recognition and a devoted base among very conservative and fundamentalist Christian voters.

Rick Perry has decided to stay in; he cannot be expecting to do well in New Hampshire, which is next up (on Jan 10), but he must do well (1st or close to 1st in vote count) in South Carolina (Jan 21) or he, too will bow out. I do not think he will do that well – he is competing for many of the same voters that Rick Santorum is after, and people like to back a winner.

The intriguing case is Newt Gingrich. Might he want to be Santorum’s vice president? This has some taste of the Bush-Cheney combination. If Perry and Gingrich do drop out, then the race is really between Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul.

Handicapping a Romney, Santorum, Paul race for the Republican nomination

Throughout the primary season, the polls have been consistent in only two regards: 1) Huntsman has no chance and 2) About 25% of Republicans support Romney. Ron Paul’s support has varied a bit more, but he has marked his territory. Will people who were supporting Perry, Bachmann or Gingrich switch to a man who wants drastic cutbacks in the role the US plays in the world (especially the middle east) and who wants to abandon the drug war? Not likely. Their natural home is Rick Santorum.

But Mitt Romney will have a lot more money, and he has the backing of the Republican establishment. Traditionally, Republicans wind up nominating the establishment guy, but this year may be different. The reins have been torn out of their hands; this process started long ago, perhaps as far back as 1964 when Goldwater was the nominee. But when John McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, it was a clear sign that the old days were over. Qualifications don’t count. Experience doesn’t matter. You need not be sane.

Probably Romney will still win. But I think Santorum has a good shot.


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