A Fan’s Take: Nadal Will Struggle If He Stays Behind the Baseline

Court position is everything for Rafa at the US Open! If he continues to stay back behind the baseline as he did in his match against Andrey Golubev on Tuesday night at the Open, he is going to have a very hard time defending his title.

Rafa defeated Golubev by a score of 6-3 7-6 7-5. It appeared to be a straight sets win if you didn’t watch the match and only looked the score. Another straightforward first round win for Rafa. It was anything but straightforward, however, if you were watched the match unfold. For all practical purposes, it felt like Nadal pulled off a “Houdini-esque” escape from a first round four set to the world #98.

Nadal played his usual best against his opponent from Kazakhstan for the first set and came away with a 6-3 set win. His serving was solid, groundstrokes were solid. There appeared to be no ill effects from the burn to his fingers that he sustained at the restaurant in Cincinnati. It looked as if it would be another routine win for our bandaged and battered defending champion.

After the first set, Golubev settled down and decided to take it to Nadal by going big early and often, hitting aggressively on both the forehand and backhand wings. Winners started flying from his racquet at will. This was also a risky strategy for Golubev, because he could just as easily end up hitting the backstop with those shots if timing or footwork were off. And we saw some of those types of errors. The scoreline told the story, however, as Andrey jumped to a big lead in the second set.

Rather than rise to his opponent’s challenge with his own offense, Rafa retreated to the Rafa of 3-4 years ago. He let himself get pushed back into retreat mode. He positioned himself well behind the baseline, allowing Golubev to dictate virtually every point. When Rafa is not on the baseline, his forehand can lack depth and land short enough in the court (think service line) that even his stellar defensive abilities are no longer enough. Rafa can play great defense, and often turn that defense to offense. That might work for him at the French Open, but that’s not how he won the US Open last year.

Rafa was able to get his career grand slam by stepping into the court and driving his forehand to the corners, usually pinning his opponents deep to the ad court in order to force a short ball that he could punish “inside out”. Same with the backhand. When he steps into that backhand he can absolutely punish it cross-court at short angles that don’t allow for the kind of attack we witnessed in his opening round.

It’s no secret that Rafa’s mounting losses to Novak Djokovic this year, 5 of them in finals, have had a momentous impact on his confidence. The doubt is written all over his face at the moments in his matches where he knows he must maintain the most “calm”. There is no calm these days. There is questioning of court position, shot selection, and most importantly his tactics. His game screams of “Am I doing the right thing” where he once displayed “I am going to crush your spirit”!

He escaped with a win on Tuesday, and he knows it. Sure he’ll take the win. A win is a win… there are no style points in tennis. Just the “W”. It allows him another round of play. One more chance to get better, to improve his positioning, improve his tactics, and work to get his balls deeper in the court. I’m sure he and Uncle Toni will work on these things before his next match against Nicolas Mahut. That match will be a much easier affair, as Mahut doesn’t have nearly the firepower to blow Nadal off the court. Then again, he can’t take these victories for granted anymore these days!

This match could easily have been a victory for Golubev by a score of 3-6 6-3 6-2 7-5. That’s my best estimate at the potential fourth set score that might have transpired, while also giving Rafa the benefit of the doubt for a good fightback in the fourth even with lagging confidence. Andrey had numerous chances to close out both the second and third sets that he failed to convert. One after another. It was painful to watch. For us, not for Rafa of course. Let’s be clear though. Rafa didn’t win those crucial points. Andrey woefully failed to convert. That’s a huge difference.

In the end Rafa DID win the points that mattered, and that’s all that counts when you look at the draw. It’s hypothetical at this juncture to speculate on what could have been a shocking first round loss. The match is done and dusted, Rafa winning in 3. But the defending champion knows he must surely do better if he is going to make it to the second week, let alone another shot at redemption against Novak.


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