By now you know that Oregon and Stanford are playing football this Saturday, November 12, 2011. The winner has a clear shot at the PAC-12 Championship and a 2012 BCS Bowl game. Stanford could even make it to the National Championship game, which Oregon played in and lost last season against Auburn. ESPN’s College Football Game Day will be at “the Farm”, for their featured game of the week.
Led by Heisman tropy favorite, quarterback Andrew Luck, many people consider Stanford a passing team. Oregon is seen as a rushing team, also led by a Heisman candidate in running back LaMichael James. In reality, the two offenses are very balanced. This season Stanford has scored 27 touchdowns passing and 26 rushing; Oregon has 25 and 26.
Passing Advantage?: Stanford averages 8.9 yards per attempt, Oregon 8.2. Stanford’s quarterbacks have only been sacked 4 times all season, Oregon 5. Both teams have thrown 5 interceptions. On the defensive side both teams have sacked the opposing quarterbacks 28 times. The Oregon backs have defended 46 passes and intercepted 10, returning 2 for touchdowns. Same stats for Stanford are only 34, 4, and 1. Overall I don’t see any passing advantage to either team.
Rushing Advantage?: Oregon averages 7.0 yards per carry, Stanford 5.7. Is 1.3 yards per play much of a difference? Actually, Yes! Oregon is #1 in the country, a full yard ahead of #2 Utah State at 6.0. Teams ranked #3 through #15 (including Stanford) all average between 5.5 and 5.9 yards per carry. Advantage Oregon.
Kicking: Both teams score so many touchdowns that they don’t try very many field goals, and both are perfect from inside 40 yards. From 40 yards and beyond, however, Stanford has made 2 out of 3, Oregon only 1 of 4. Advantage Stanford.
Punting: Again, neither team has to punt all that often, but when they do … Jackson Rice has Oregon ranked #2 in the nation with an average distance of 46.8 yards (38.2 net) vs. 40.1 for Stanford (32.3 net). Those 6 yards per possession can mean a lot if the game is close. Advantage Oregon.
Depth at Quarterback: It’s not uncommon in college football that a key player gets injured. What would happen if Andrew Luck were unable to play? No other Stanford quarterback has thrown more than 8 passes this year, with a total of 1 touchdown. If Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas were to be injured (again), Bryan Bennett has proven he is ready to take over. In fact, Bennett throws touchdown passes more frequently (1 per 7.5 attempts) than either Luck (10.5) or Thomas (9.9).
Depth at Running Back: Stepfan Taylor carries the load for Stanford, literally, with 147 attempts (more than 40 percent of the team’s attempts) and an average of 6.1 yards per carry. Tyler Gaffney, averaging 6.4 yards, is the only other Stanford player averaging more than 5.1 yards with at least 20 attempts.
Oregon’s LaMichael James is ranked #3 in the NCAA with an average of 8.0 yards per carry, yet only has one-third of Oregon’s attempts. Kenjon Barner ranks #42 at 6.8 yards per carry (Stanford’s Taylor is ranked #61). Other Ducks with 20+ carries (but not enough to qualify in the official NCAA rankings) include: Bryan Bennett averaging 9.0 yards, De’Anthony Thomas at 8.5 yards, and Tra Carson 6.1. Without a doubt, the rushing advantage goes to Oregon.
The final, and I feel most important, advantage to Oregon is their breakaway speed. Their are 7 different Ducks who have scored touchdowns from more than 20 yards on offensive plays (9 when you include kick and interception returns. Stanford has only 3 from scrimmage and 5 overall. Most surprising to me is in the passing category: Oregon with 5 and Stanford only 1 (Stepfan Taylor). When the Ducks get the ball in open space, a step ahead of the defense, they are not going to be caught.
Enjoy the game!
Source for statistics: espn.com