Below are player projections for the most and least valuable of fantasy commodity on their teams. Projections are based on a 5×5 format in a standard ten-player league.
Part 7 of 30: Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds underachieved in 2011. Finishing 79-83 for a team that was expected to compete for the NL Central crown was almost shocking. With that GM Walt Jocketty sent a stern message to the team acting as the catalyst for the departures of RP Francisco Cordero, SP Edinson Volquez and Travis Wood. In turn, the Reds welcomed Matt Latos, Sean Marshall, and Ryan Madson. The Reds are built to win now.
Projected Roto MVP: Joey Votto (2011 fantasy line: .309/29/103/101/8)
While I expect a big year from Jay Bruce, Joey Votto is one of baseball’s elite hitters. He’s just 28 years of age and hits in what should be an explosive offense in 2012. I expect all his numbers to rise this season and would not be surprised to see him post a .320/33/126/110/8 line this season with potential MVP honors. He is that good.
Projected Roto Flop: Scott Rolen (2011 fantasy line: .242/5/36/31/1)
It may not quite be appropriate to call it the beginning of the Juan Francisco era, but it is certainly time to write the epitaph of Scott Rolen. The Reds can talk about experienced leadership all they want, however, that doesn’t count in fantasy baseball. I would be surprised to see him play 100 games.
Projected Roto Surprise: Homer Bailey (2011 fantasy line: 9/4.43/106/1.28)
I have a soft spot in my heart for 25-year olds who underachieved in their third year in the majors, especially when they were former first round picks. His WHIP has gotten progressively better each year and he struck out an average of 7.2 batters per nine innings pitched in 2011. It would not be surprising if this is the year he challenges Mat Latos or Johnny Cueto as staff ace.
Top Roto Prospect: Devin Mesoraco (2011 fantasy line: .180/2/6/5/0; 50 ABs)
He is a former first round pick from the 2007 draft. He hit .289 with 15 homers and struck out only 83 times in 436 ABs last year in Louisville of the International League. His only competition in camp will be career back-up Ryan Hanigan. It may take some time (see J.P. Arencibia) but he is the catcher of the future for the Reds.
Notes: Ryan Madson had 32 saves last season – look for him to easily surpass that number this year…the league hit .286 off Bronson Arroyo and he surrendered 46 home runs last season, all of which makes him suspect…Drew Stubbs struck out once every three official ABs in 2011 and must be ignored in 5×5 formats until that number improves…Sean Marshall can be a major player in K’s, ERA and WHIP…If Aroldis Chapman gets off to a fast start as an SP, I pull the trigger on a trade to an unsuspecting owner ASAP.
Sources: Yahoo! sports
mlb.com
Robert Watkins is former investment professional and partner. A life-long baseball fan and twenty year fantasy veteran, he lives with his family in Glen Mills, Pa. Robert is a frequent contributor to Yahoo! Sports and News.
Additional Yahoo! contributions by this writer:
A Fan’s Fantasy Baseball Take: Johan Santana Has Entered the Building
Embrace Curtis Granderson: A Fan’s Take in Fantasy Baseball 2012
With Casey McGehee Signed, the Battle for the Pirates Third Base Job Commences: A Fan’s Take