Robinson Cano is a great player that any great fantasy baseball manager won’t draft. Every year, there is someone in the mix that elite managers will pass on and this year’s man is Robinson Cano. The reason is value (a balancing of Production vs. Cost). Robinson Cano costs too much on draft day; the players you give up by taking him outweigh his value over the other second basemen available, especially a man by the name of Dan Uggla, who elite managers will place at the top of their value list both overall and at second base.
Let’s directly compare the two right now to see what I’m getting at based on ESPN’s projections for them in 2012:
Cano: 103R, 28HR, 111RBI, 6SB, .306AVG
Uggla: 91R, 34HR, 90RBI, 2SB, .263AVG
The major differences are there; Cano is clearly projecting to produce better numbers than Uggla for 2012. But, the issue isn’t just production, it’s also about cost when you’re making a selection on draft day. Robinson Cano has an ADP of 7.8, while Dan Uggla checks in with an ADP of 47.7. That’s pretty much 40 picks. Most importantly though, you’re taking Cano ahead of some super studs like Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Evan Longoria, and Justin Upton. Surprisingly, Votto and Gonzalez, despite being first basemen, are better value over the kind of guy that would be available to you in Round 2 at first base (Mark Teixeira – ADP 23.6) than Cano is over Uggla; surprising because everyone says 2B is the shallow position and gives Cano value because of it. Don’t believe me, check out the numbers (ESPN’s projections again).
Votto: 104R, 32HR, 107RBI, 10SB, .312AVG
Gonzalez: 111R, 30HR, 120RBI, 1SB, .313AVG
Teixeira: 99R, 36HR, 113RBI, 3SB, .266AVG
Teixeira is farther from Votto and Gonzalez than Uggla is from Cano; and that’s the guy you would take in the second round! Teixeira is clocking in with an ADP of 23.6. That’s a full 2 rounds ahead of Uggla! Second base is the only position in fantasy baseball where the #7 overall guy is marginally better than the #47 overall guy in the draft. First base, while plentiful, is packed with elite players that aren’t going to make it out of the first 15 picks of a draft (Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, Gonzalez, Fielder) then one reliable guy (Teixeira) and a couple of people eligible at better positions to place them at (Napoli and Santana eligible at Catcher) and upside hopefuls (Sandoval, Morse, Ike Davis, Eric Hosmer).
If you take Robinson Cano, keep in mind that someone’s going to take Votto or Gonzalez. Then you’re either going to take Teixeira while he loads up a quality player like Curtis Granderson, Mike Stanton, Adrian Beltre, or Cliff Lee in Round 2; or you’re going to pass on Teixeira and wind up hoping a guy that you put in the one of the few bankable positions in fantasy produces for you. Meanwhile, that someone will wait until Round 4 and snatch Dan Uggla.
As for position scarcity, let’s drive the point home with a look around Uggla’s ADP of 47.7. Clocking in around there are Hunter Pence, Alex Rodriguez, and Desmond Jennings; two outfielders and a third baseman. How do they stack up against Uggla?
Pence: 83R, 23HR, 91RBI, 11SB, .289AVG
Jennings: 82R, 16HR, 51RBI, 37SB, .256AVG
Rodriguez: 75R, 24HR, 89RBI, 6SB, .257AVG
Uggla: 91R, 34HR, 90RBI, 2SB, .263AVG
Second base is shallow and you need to get Cano? Hardly, it’s just fine in Round 4 thanks to Dan Uggla. Pass on Cano, pick up your first base stud, load up on a guy like Adrian Beltre (ADP 27.2), David Wright (ADP 30.8) or Ryan Zimmerma (ADP 37.2) at third base (all project far better than A-Rod in Round 4 and everyone else at 3B going on from there) and a guy like Curtis Granderson (ADP 21.1), Andrew McCutchen (ADP 29.2) or Cole Hamels (ADP 33.2) to anchor your outfield or rotation in Rounds 2 and 3 while you wait to snatch amazing value in Round 4. Your team will be markedly better and you’ll be coming back to thank me for a great season.