The debate regarding the Denver Broncos and Tim Tebow seems polarized to knee-jerk pessimism or unsubstantiated optimism. Essentially, either the team’s record proves that Tim Tebow is a “winner” despite the poor offensive numbers, or the low point totals are “unsustainable” for little other reason than most teams try to score more. What this debate boils down to is the lack of a comparable approach in football. Fans of the modern, largely offensive minded, NFL simply haven’t seen a strategy that seemingly discards scoring as a primary motivation yet still succeeds. Even the Ravens try to throw the ball now. However, fans of today’s NHL certainly have seen the pros and cons of such an approach play out.
Comparable to today’s NFL, the 1990s saw a handful of great, multi-championship NHL teams led by Hall of Fame playmaking centers (Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Peter Forsberg to name a few) supported by great goal scoring wingers. Teams that were merely very good at the skill positions, for the most part, could not keep up. Two defensive team strategies emerged – the Left Wing Lock of the Detroit Red Wings and the Neutral Zone Trap of the New Jersey Devils- that eventually overcame this imbalance. To this observer, the Broncos appear to be using a very similar approach to counter the lack of Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers on their team.
For the eventual Stanley Cup winning Devils, offense was reduced to possessing the puck long enough for the defense to recover, playing very physically, and limiting mistakes to the extreme of limiting offensive opportunities. As games progressed, opposing teams wore down physically and mentally by this methodological, disciplined approach. Once this happened, often after long periods of nearly unwatchable hockey, the Devils had just enough offense to convert their opponents fatigue into the game-winning goal. Ultimately, this is what John Fox’s zone read offense, and Tim Tebow’s non-traditional skill set, allows the Broncos to do. While Denver has some talent on offense, they do not have the top receiving talent or depth possessed by New Orleans, Green Bay, or New England nor do they have the same Pro Bowl-quality offensive line. They don’t even have the offensive talent of Oakland or San Diego. However, they do have some great players on defense. Champ Bailey is still one of the best corners in the NFL, Von Miller is becoming the Scott Stevens of football, and Elvis Dumervil is beginning to look like he did prior to injury. Unfortunately, short possessions by the Broncos offense at the start of the season allowed the defense get worn out and overextended.
While Tim Tebow and Willis McGahee combing for 30-35 carries a game may not be fun to watch, it does keep the defense fresh much more successfully than a pocket passing approach would – even those run by Brees, Brady, and Rodgers. While the resulting long possessions also limit the Broncos scoring opportunities, they further allow the Broncos line to be physical all game long and wear out the opposing defense. This is accomplished in part by forcing the other team’s linebackers to become more reactionary compared to a traditional rushing offense, letting Denver’s blockers engage at an advantage. The result – just like Jacques Lemaire’s Devils – is often very hard to watch. However, when the game is on the line the Broncos are fresh with just enough offensive skill and clutch play to take advantage of their tired, and overextended – yet often more skilled – opponent.
Ultimately, diagnosing today’s the reason for today’s success isn’t the most important lesson of the Broncos/Devils analogy. The Devil’s greatest success – their Stanley Cup titles – did not come until several years evolving the trap and some perceived regression as a team. The Devils nevertheless committed to the shorter path of perfecting what was working as opposed to taking the long path to winning in the same manner as their peers. The Broncos and Tim Tebow do need to continue developing an effective strategy for passing out of the zone read, they need better receiver play, and they need more depth in the secondary before becoming serious contenders. However, the barriers to achieving these goals are infinitely smaller than trying to assemble a team capable of competing with a more traditional offensive strategy. While the win against Minnesota suggests they may be making progress on the first two faster then expected, the one fact the critics consistently get right is that the Broncos will not continue to win 80%+ indefinitely. Things will get appear to get worse for this team before the ultimate success is in Denver’s grasp. The Broncos should not let the obstacles that come scare them off the path they are on. It is quite simply their best chance for long term success.