…except, of course, for Nadal, Murray, Djokovic, Agassi and quite possibly several other players who have all at some time racked up three straight wins against the great Roger Federer.
The question is, can Jo-Wilfried Tsonga follow suit and continue his recent winning form and claim a third straight victory against the former World Number One, and thus book himself a place in the US Open semi-finals?
No longer the dominant force he was five or six years ago, Federer now enjoys his role as ubiquitous underdog, always working his way into contention at every major tournament, ready to snap up any scraps that fall of the dinner plates of Djokovic and Nadal. And, as is the case with several top players in recent years, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga enjoys a relatively good head-to-head record with the 16-time Grand Slam Champion.
Federer and Tsonga have already faced off four times in 2011, splitting the wins two-a-piece. Federer won in straight sets in Doha and again in Rome, and looked on course to win again in straights at Wimbledon before the Frenchman turned the tables and ran off three straight sets to advance to his first Wimbledon semi-final.
This wasn’t the first time that Tsonga had hit a purple patch against Federer. In 2009, Tsonga managed to come back from 5-1 down in the third set to book a spot in the semi-finals of the Masters Series event in Montreal.
That time, Tsonga followed up the win by getting absolutely crushed by Federer a few months later at the Australian Open.
However, after his Wimbledon upset, Tsonga was able to back up his win with another victory, again in Montreal, this time 6-1 in the third.
It’s true to say that lots of people have beaten Federer, and one win doesn’t necessarily indicate another. However, it’s also true that once a player knows he can turn the tables on someone, they will always have a different mind-set during the match.
For years, Federer won match after match on sheer intimidation. Most players walked onto court hoping for a dignified loss, and when they got behind were content to go along and hope they don’t get too much of a drubbing.
Unfortunately for Roger, this is no longer the case.
These days, Roger Federer is still dominant in the first week of majors, having reached his 30th straight Grand Slam quarter-final at the US Open this week. A remarkable feat that dates back to the 2004 French Open when he lost to Gustavo Kuerten in third round. Since then it’s been quarter-finals or better, four times a year, every year.
The first 23 of these quarter-final appearances actually went one step further, with Federer reaching every Grand Slam semi-final from Wimbledon 2004 until the French Open in 2010, where he lost to Robin Soderling in four sets.
Since this loss, Federer has been at his most vulnerable at the quarter-final stage, having lost three of the last six Grand Slam quarters. The most recent being to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the All England Club.
Despite his recent Grand Slam quarter-final loses, the last time Federer lost before the semi-final of a hard court Grand Slam was back in 2003 when David Nalbandian beat Federer in the fourth round of the US Open.
So does Tsonga have a good shot at beating Federer and earning his first US Open semi-final?
As a fully fledged and unwavering Roger Federer fan, I find watching Federer lose abhorrent to every fiber of my being, but something tells me that the time has come that for the first time in almost a decade, the US Open semi-final line-up may not feature the great Swiss
Tsonga no longer fears Federer. He’s in his 30″²s now, and has a habit of chocking. He’s lost several matches from match point up, and hasn’t won a title since Doha back in January.
For Federer to beat Tsonga, he’s going to have to dominate from start to finish, knowing that Tsonga will not give up and is capable of finding the zone at any moment.
If you’re looking for an outside bet for the quarter-finals, I’ll bet on Tsonga in four.
(For the record: I still want Federer to win)