Having laid the groundwork for the semi-final matches, we’re ready to dissect the final four and see who will be losing to Serena in the finals.
Semi-final 1
Caroline / Serena: Serena in 2 sets.
There isn’t a scenario I can envision where Serena doesn’t win this match in straight sets. Caroline is a great player who is tenacious and gets a lot of balls back. There is just no comparison, however, to a player of Serena’s skill set. All the tenacity in the world isn’t going to help her return Serena’s serve, or get her racquet on the ball when Serena makes her pay dearly for a weak first or second serve. Caroline is the WTA number one by virtue of quantity with some quality. But in this match we will be able to make a direct comparison between what the computer says is number one, and what truly is number one!
Semi-final 2
Maria / Vera: Maria in 3 sets.
This is a rematch of this year’s Cincinnati semi-final which was won by Maria in 3 tough sets. There is very little to separate these two players on paper. The intangibles are immense though, and Maria possesses the most important intangible: a steely resolve to fight until the last point for the victory. Her game may get derailed (many unforced errors and double faults), but her mental toughness stays true ’til the end…even if she can’t put a first serve in the box to save her life. Vera has gotten tougher over the past few years, and is less prone to the mental breakdowns on court that plagued her for so many years.
Even so, her mental toughness still does not compare to Maria’s. This was on display in Cincinnati, and will probably hold true for this semi-final as well. Of course, Maria could make her life much easier if she cut down the errors in her game. The final in Cincinnati was downright awful. If she plays like that Vera will have a cakewalk match. Let’s hope she doesn’t. One horrifically ugly match this past month was enough for most of us
Final
Serena / Maria: Serena in 2 sets for the title.
There is not one edge Maria can carry into this match over Serena. Serena is better on serves, returns, groundstrokes, and defense. They are equal with respect to competitiveness and championship resolve. But given the lack of everything else for Maria, all I can see is another result like the quarterfinal loss she suffered at Stanford. The score was 6-1 6-3. It might improve just a bit, but not much. Sasha, her fiance, will hopefully be there to comfort her after the match.
Congratulations on grand slam number 14 Serena!