FIRST PERSON | TUCSON, Ariz. — The changing demographics in southern Arizona, impacted by illegal immigrant crossings across the U.S. border, are causing tension among many long-time citizens and the Mexican-American community.
As a long-time resident of Pima County, I can see the changes in the political climate impacting every segment of our community. Uneasiness between whites and Hispanics previously existed but as the 2012 election approaches, I can sense an uncomfortable intensity.
Tucson itself is heavily population by Mexican-Americans who usually vote as Democrats while the outlying districts lean toward the Republicans. Although few will admit it, there are still code words used that imply in some areas, such as in the Catalina Mountain Foothills, Mexican-Americans are not welcome. Having lived in Tucson most of my life and then in middle age migrating into an outlying area, the difference in demographics between the two area is obvious. Walk into any grocery store outside of Tucson proper and while the employees may consist of many Hispanics, the customers are mostly white.
Right now, it looks to me that residents of the city of Tucson, who are primarily politically liberal, will vote unhesitatingly for Barack Obama and the conservatives in the outlying areas will vote Republican, regardless of who the candidate turns out to be.
Having a large family that is divided between liberals and conservatives, while I am registered as a No Party Designated (NPD), I listen to both sides — Democrats accusing Republicans of being racists over the issue of voter identification required at the polls and Republicans accusing Democrats of ignoring that illegal Mexicans coming across the border are costing the city and country millions of dollars in an area already deeply in debt. Meanwhile, Tucson and Pima County have a large number of independents and undecided voters who may be influenced by the changing demographics and are still the great unknowns in the complex political climate.
One large high school is now sixty-one (61) percent Hispanic and in chaos because of the cancellation by the state of a curriculum created especially for these students. This may result in a larger than usual Mexican-American and white liberal turnout at the polls.
Another factor in the election may be that Tucson is losing its Caucasian young adults, many of whom are educated at the University of Arizona and leave after graduation with no intention of returning. I can attest to this as among the grandchildren in my family, almost all of them have migrated to other parts of the US. From my own observation, their votes would have gone to Democrats, including the reelection of Obama.
“The Emerging Democratic Majority” that was published in 2011 has been followed up by one of the authors, Ruy Teixeira. His current research has been published by Lincoln Park Strategists. It indicates that Tucson will become increasingly Hispanic and those voters will support and vote for Democrats.