As a lifelong fan of the Cincinnati Reds, I would like to consider my team among the most prestigious in baseball. After all, they were the first professional baseball organization established, have won numerous World Series, and boast the game’s all-time hit king. For periods of time, most notably the 1970’s and the early 1990’s, I have the right to think that. But if you ask the average fan where the Reds rank among the best of the best in recent history, where would they be placed?
At the top? No. Baseball is dominated by deep pockets (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies) and by excellent scouting and management (Cardinals, Braves, Rays, Rangers).
At the top of their division? No. Joey Votto may have lead the Reds to a Central title while winning MVP in 2010, but that was their only division title since 1995. Besides, Votto’s name just doesn’t have that pizzazz to a nationwide audience like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, or Ryan Braun.
In the top half of the majors? No. What have they done in the last 16 years? Nothing! 1 playoff appearance, 0 playoff wins. Besides, there are more exciting teams to cover, right? The Cubs, Mets and, more recently, the Marlins, may not have had much recent success, but they have made big splashes in the free agent market! Why pay attention to these small market teams that don’t break the bank to try to win?
So surely I am relying too much on bias by predicting a possible Reds World Series run, right? That’s for you to decide, but consider my reasoning:
1) Weaker NL Central
The first one is easy. Cincinnati’s top two competitors in the division have lost their biggest bat to free agency, and both of them were Reds killers. Pujols has a ridiculous .350/.430/.641 line and 46 HR 143 RBI in 172 games (just over a full season) against the Reds in his career, and although a fringe hall-of-famer in his own right, Lance Berkman is just not going to replace those numbers or defense at 1B at the ripe old age of 36. Fielder has a less flashy, but still impressive .276/.388/.518 line with 22 HR and 66 RBI in 102 games in his career against the Reds and is being replaced by an inexperienced player who has yet to prove to be any more than a AAAA-type.
2) A GM that is “all in”
For the first time since 2000, I can safely say that the Reds have a General Manager that is “all in” – he’s going to do what it takes for this team to reach the playoffs. That fated 2000 trade for Ken Griffey, Jr. may have helped kill the franchise financially for the next 10 or so years, but it did re-energize the fan base in the short term and showed everyone that the Reds were not content with sitting pat. Walt Jocketty is doing the same thing now, (season ticket sales are already climbing early in Spring Training) but he is much smarter with the pocketbook he has to work with. This offseason’s big moves will be the basis for my next point, but the minor league signing of Brett Tomko has to be a good sign that the Reds are finally over their Griffey woes, right?
3) Bullpen
Walt Jocketty made three big moves this offseason, and two of them were directed at solidifying an already above-average bullpen – the signing of Ryan Madson, and the trade for Sean Marshall. The Reds were widely lampooned for the $46 million contract they gave Francisco Cordero in 2007, and although he put up some pretty good, albeit inconsistent, numbers through his 4-year deal, he gave Reds fans more heart attacks than McDonalds in the process. You could just see the lack of confidence every time he stepped onto the mound, and you could definitely hear the chorus of boos in GABP. To keep it simple – CoCo needed to go. Jocketty made this happen by patiently waiting for the Phillies to spurn their all-star caliber closer (Madson) for a flashier veteran from the free agent market (Papelbon). $8.5 for Madson is an absolute steal compared to what the Reds have dealt with the past 4 years. The Reds filled in their only other question mark in the bullpen (left by Aroldis Chapman, who will convert to a starter in 2012) with a brand new setup man, and one of the best left-handed relivers in the NL – Sean Marshall. If there is anything World Series champions have in common, it’s an extraordinary bullpen. For the first time in years, I can safely say the Reds are there.
4) Defense
The Reds projected starting lineup sports five position players that have all recently won gold gloves, or have performed well enough earn consideration – Votto (1B), Phillips (2B), Rolen (3B), Stubbs (CF), and Bruce (RF). They also have an up-and-coming catching prospect who is reportedly skilled beyond his years behind the plate defnsively and on the bench they have a defensive specialist in Paul Janish that can cover any infield position and a solid, versatile OF in Chris Heisey. The point is – the Reds have put a big emphasis on improving their defense over the years, and it seems likely that this year will hit their highest team defense potential.
5) Youth
27 is the magic age that baseball players typically start to peak; and coming into the season, 9 of the 13 players that comprise the Reds starting position players and rotation either hit that age or fall just short of it. That number doesn’t include Joey Votto, who won the MVP in 2010 when he turned 27 at the end of the season, and Brandon Phillips who hit 30 last year, but had career high numbers with a .300 AVG, .353 OBP, 38 doubles, his first Silver Slugger award and his third Golden Glove. My point – this team has not seen its full potential yet, but common wisdom shows that it should be coming soon. And with all of these young players with positive attitudes around, the clubhouse should be as loose as it has been in a long time.
The Reds may not have much of a recent history, but they’re heading in that direction. If you don’t believe a biased fan – just watch. My money’s on the Reds to be a top contender in the NL this season.