Now that another NFL Fantasy season is in the books, it is time to look back and evaluate players in terms of best value (steals), worst value (busts), and position MVPs. The selections are based on the collective preseason Yahoo! Fantasy expert rankings relative to end of season rankings, and the average draft positions in Yahoo! public leagues . Players were excluded if they missed more than a few games due to injury, and an added emphasis was placed on performances in fantasy playoff weeks 14 through 16. Standard PPR scoring format is used.
RB – Compared to recent seasons, there was not exceptional RB depth in the 2011 season. Only one back topped 1500 yards rushing or 20 total TDs, and six of the top ten preseason RBs missed games with injuries. Three of them ended up on IR. The first two rounds of many drafts found owners stepping on RB landmines, whether it was underperformance, injury, or both. Handcuffing your first RB was an especially good idea this season.
MVP : Ray Rice – boosted by 76 catches and over 2000 combined yards, Rice had an outstanding season. In the four games where he was shut down running the ball (less than 50 yds), he averaged 6.5 receptions for 46 yds. Rice should head into next season neck and neck with LeSean McCoy for the #1 RB ranking.
Honorable mention: McCoy – 20 total TDs and 1523 total yds elevated Shady to elite RB status this yr. Had he approached his two previous seasons’ average receiving numbers, he would have wrestled the top spot from Rice. Unfortunately for his owners that reached the title game, McCoy was hurt early in wk 16. Arian Foster – despite missing three games, Foster still produced numbers good enough to finish as a top four back. 12 total TDs and 1841 total yards proved that his breakout 2010 season was no fluke. On a per game avg, he was just slightly behind Rice. Maurice Jones-Drew – the league rushing leader churned out yet another solid season. MJD finished just short of 2000 total yards, and scored 5 TDs in the playoffs.
Steal: Darren Sproles – Most experts’ depth charts had Sproles behind Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas in the Saints backfield. As such, he was pre ranked the #43 RB, and drafted around pick # 110. He not only led the Saints in rushing (at 6.9 yards a carry), he hauled in 86 passes for 710 yds. Toss in his 10 combined TDs (which included a punt return), and you have the #5 RB, and solid value anywhere he was drafted.
Honorable mention: Marshawn Lynch – Justin Forsett was expected to share touches with Lynch heading into the 2011 season. A preseason rank of #27, and an average draft slot of #97 reinforced owner trepidation. However, the Skittles-loving Lynch exploded during the second half of the season and checked in with 1400 total yds and 13 TDs, good for the # 6 RB overall. Fred Jackson – another casualty of a presumed time share (with C.J. Spiller), Jackson was pre ranked the #32 RB and drafted around #98. Jackson instead was arguably the NFL’s best back through ten games before a season-ending injury, racking up over 1300 total yds. Despite missing those final six games, he still finished as the #14 RB. McCoy – a borderline first round preseason pick, Shady returned top three RB numbers.
Bust: Rashard Mendenhall – with over 1300 yds and 13 TDs in 2010, Mendenhall was poised for another solid season. Preseason, he was the #6 RB and drafted around pick #9. However, inconsistent offensive line play and nagging injuries led to Mendenhall underachieving in 2011, and he failed to crack 1000 yards or 10 TDs. He finished as the #22 RB.
Honorable mention: Chris Johnson – CJ was pre ranked the # 4 RB and drafted on average at pick # 5. He did manage nearly 1500 combined yds and 57 receptions, but scored a career low 4 TDs. Johnson finished the season as the #9 RB. LeGarrette Blount – after his impressive 2010 rookie season, Blount was pre ranked the #17 RB and drafted around pick # 45. However, Blount failed to reach 1000 combined yds and scored only six times. To his credit, Tampa Bay wasn’t running the ball a whole lot this season as they found themselves down two TDs in the second half of plenty of games. Peyton Hillis – the 2010 fantasy darling endured a dreadful 2011 campaign. The preseason #11 RB was drafted around pick # 26, but crashed all the way down to finish as the #46 RB. I would normally exclude a player from bust status when they only play 10 games. Hillis, however, underachieved when he did suit up; and there were a lot of questions about whether he was actually too hurt to play.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byposition?pos=RB
http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/nfl/news?slug=ys-expertpoll-pre11-rb
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/draftanalysis?tab=SD&pos=QB&sort=DA_AP