With the NFL Regular Season kicking off last night with an explosive battle between the Saints and Packers let’s take a look at the best Fantasy Football players from the 2011 Denver Broncos, a rebuilding team that will still yield plenty of fantasy commodities.
Fantasy Player Rankings:
1. Brandon Lloyd (WR)
2. Knowshon Moreno (RB)
3. Willis McGahee (RB)
4. Kyle Orton (QB)
5. Julius Thomas (TE)
6. Demaryius Thomas (WR)
7. Tim Tebow (QB)
8. Eddie Royal (WR)
9. Eric Decker (WR)
10. Denver Defense
Underated: Brandon Lloyd
Overrated: Knowshon Moreno
Sleeper Pick: Julius Thomas
Fantasy Positional Breakdown:
QB
Kyle Orton
Kyle Orton put up good fantasy numbers in the first half of 2010, but he’s not a guy to target in fantasy drafts going into 2011. He’s a solid QB2 in most formats, but running John Fox’s newly instilled conservative offense will negatively impact Orton’s fantasy value. The rebuilding Broncos will still be playing from behind a lot, which will help Orton’s attempts, but the Denver offense will be much more run heavy this year than it was in the past two under Josh McDaniels. Orton will be worth a spot start or two against weaker defenses, but don’t view him as anything more than a solid QB2 for you fantasy squad.
Tim Tebow
With the conclusion of the lockout and subsequent start of training camp word around the league was that Kyle Orton was going to be dealt to Miami and that Tim Tebow was going to be given the starting job in Denver. In the end that deal never panned out, and the Broncos are stronger for it. Tebow, for as much as a gamer as he is, simply isn’t ready to be a starting QB in the NFL. The new Broncos Brass wanted to make the switch to him before actually getting to see him in camp, and one they did they were THRILLED that the Orton deal had fallen through with Dolphins. Tebow has all the skills to be a solid NFL QB, but he just isn’t ready yet. Having taken every college snap from the shotgun (he fumbled multiple snaps from under center during the Senior Bowl) he is pretty much as raw as you can get, and it will take more than a year holding a clipboard with a little garbage gametime to get Tebow NFL ready. When given the opportunity toward the end of last season he looked impressive, but his accuracy, footwork, and overall throwing mechanics still need to be fixed before he can compete consistently at the NFL level. Tebow is well behind Orton on the depth chart and there is no QB Controversy here. However, for fantasy purposes, don’t forget about Tebow all together. The guy led all fantasy QBs in points the last weeks of 2010 (fantasy playoff time), and if given the chance to play his physical ability makes him an asset as a fantasy QB. Try and get Tebow out of free agents a couple weeks into the season and stash him, as he could have value as the 2011 season gets under way. The Broncos are rebuilding and there is no question that Kyle “Every-Man” Orton is not the future of the franchise. If the Broncos start the season off poorly and are realistically out of the playoff picture they will hand the reigns over to Tebow to see if he is. That means that Tebow could be a sleeper for your fantasy team given his ability to make things happen running the football. Pick him up and stash him on your bench for now, come weeks 10-17 you could be glad that you did.
Brady Quinn
Brady Quinn has no fantasy value going into the 2011 season. He is supposedly in a battle with Tim Tebow to be the #2 QB, but if Orton were to get injured/if the Broncos start off the season poorly Tebow will be the guy the Broncos go too, not Quinn. He also looked atrocious in the Broncos final preseason game last night against the Cardinals. Orton is the QB of now, Tebow might be the QB of the future, Quinn is just a backup. He is one in a long list of players to come out of Notre Dame way overhyped. Avoid him like the plague in 2011. He should only be remembered as the QB that McDaniels traded Peyton Hillis for…yeah, that Peyton Hillis.
RB
Knowshon Moreno
Moreno will be the 1st Denver Broncos RB taken in your fantasy draft. Someone in your draft will reach for him because of the new conservative offensive scheme in Denver, but you don’t want to be that guy. Over the years Knowshon has shown us nothing more than a lack of straight line speed and a propensity for injuries. Unfortunately, situation will not correct those issues, and Knowshon will prove once and for all this season that he simply isn’t a good starting NFL RB. Take a chance on him if another manager desperately trys to deal him, but on the whole Knowshon is not a guy that you want in 2011.
Willis McGahee
McGahee IS the Denver Broncos RB that you want on your fantasy team. One has to look no further than Carolina in years past to see that Coach John Fox loves to use a platoon for his RB position. Denver signed McGahee when free agency opened up for that very reason, he is going to split carries with Knowshon. For fantasy purposes, McGahee will get the more significant carries as well. McGahee will get all the goal line work for the Broncos this season, and given Knowshon’s injury riddled past he could wind up with the majority of the carries overall as well. McGahee can still be had as a free agent in many leagues, and given the guarenteed goal line carries you want to buy low. He is more valuable than just as a handcuff to the fragile Moreno.
WR
Brandon Lloyd
There aren’t many cases that you see a player breakout in his 8th year in the league, but that is exactly what Brandon Lloyd did last season. In most formats he led all WRs in fantasy points last season, and yet, his stock in 2011 is still surprsingly low. Everyone has predicted his fall from grace so much that he is actually now underrated. You don’t want him as your WR1, although he could easily put up those types of numbers again. You should have the luxury of being able to bring in Lloyd cheaply enough in a trade to be your WR2 or even WR3. I get why people are a little scared off, there’s a new offensive scheme that is a lot more run heavy and last year was Lloyd’s first year in the NFL contributing much of anything. However, consider that he had over 1400 yards and 11 TDs last year with the same QB (Orton) under center that he has now. Also, Lloyd’s fantasy numbers survived the Tebow switch surprisingly well last season considering that he is a much less accomplished passer than Orton. The Broncos defense will be improved, but this team will still be playing from behind A LOT in 2011, giving Lloyd plenty of chances to make some more highlight-reel TD catches. You want Lloyd on your team this year, expect 1000 yards and 6 TDs, but don’t be surprised if he puts up 1200 and 8.
Eddie Royal
Eddie Royal will be lining up at WR2 for the Broncos, at least to start the season. I wouldn’t waste my time with him though, his only real succesful season in the NFL came in his rookie campaigne with Jay Cutler at the helm. With Cutler and his gunslinging ways gone from Denver Royal has all but dissapeared fantasy wise. By midseason look for him to fall into a more comfortable role in the slot, but I wouldn’t waste time considering him for fantasy purposes. Hard to believe that this is the guy everyone was hyping as Josh McDaniels’ new Wes Welker two seasons ago.
Demaryius Thomas
Thomas has been all but forgotten by the fantasy community. After a 2010 rookie season plagued by injuries and an acl tear in the offseason he is little more than after thought in the minds of many. However, you don’t want to sleep on this guy. He was the 1st WR taken in the 2010 NFL Draft, and he has all the talent to be a star. If you’re in a dynasty or keeper league make Thomas a top priority. If you’re in a standard league he could be a huge sleeper guy. Everyone expected him to start out the season on the PUP list, but his recovery process has been going amazingly well and he could be ready to go Week 1, as he is already back practicing at full speed. Thomas is a big-bodied WR with the speed of a burner, look for him to make an impact once he gets acclimated to the new offense. Expect Thomas to be starting opposite Brandon Lloyd by week 6.
Eric Decker
Decker was drafted in 2010 as well, and has looked good throughout the preseason. Don’t expect much in 2011, but keep him on your watch list. If at any point in 2011 Decker is able to push Eddie Royal for playing time then he could be worth a look. The Broncos best lineup at WR would be Lloyd, a healthy Thomas, and Decker in the slot.
TE
Julius Thomas
Thomas is my dark horse player for 2011, not just on the Denver Broncos but throughout all of fantasy land. The guy has a very similar makeup and background to Antonio Gates, and has looked stellar so far in camp and the preseason. Daniel Fells MAY open the season as the starter in Denver, but Thomas is the Broncos TE to own in 2011. He is being overlooked by just about everyone at this point, and if you’re in a dynasty league or keeper league give this guy a look. He doesn’t have a whole lot of competition for playing time, and is already the #1 passing target at TE for the Broncos. He played football for the first time last year in college at Portland State after being a four year starter in basketball, and the coaches in Denver have been raving about how easy the transition to the pro football has been for him. He could very easily be the next Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates at TE, keep him on your watch list in standard leagues and skoop him up right now in dynasty or keeper leagues. There is little risk associated with this potential high reward player. John Fox has never used the TE much, but he has never had a TE as talented as Julius Thomas either.
Daniel Fells
Fells is the starter right now but is really more of a blocker and wont contribute much to the passing game, don’t consider him for fantasy purposes unless you’re in a real deep league and you have to decide between him and Scott Chandler (Buffalo).
K
Matt Prater
Prater is too inconsistent and plays on too much of a low-yield offense to be considered a solid fantasy kicker, however, if you’re one of those managers that doesn’t mind using two roster spots for kickers then give Prater a look. He has a strong leg and I think III could kick a 50 yard field goal in the Mile High air. If you feel like rolling with two kickers let one be Prater and start him for home games. Otherwise, there are better fantasy kickers to be had.
DEF
Broncos Team Defense
The Denver Broncos defense was one of the worst in the league in 2010, and they aren’t yet ownable in 2011 for fantasy purposes. With the additions of Rahim Moore and Von Miller in the draft and key defensive player Elvis Dumervil coming back from injury this unit will be much improved, but they are still a year away from being considered worth of fantasy consideration.