Republican Field Begins to Narrow After Iowa Straw Poll

Michele Bachmann came out as the winner of the Iowa straw poll Saturday, narrowly defeating Ron Paul. The Iowa, or Ames, straw poll is a hybrid of a political convention and state fair that culminates with Republican activists having a vote on who they are currently supporting. While it is only sometimes any indicator of who will get the Republican presidential nomination, it often becomes the end of the line for campaigns that are failing to gain momentum and traction with the voters.

This year is no different. Some candidates will fight on through the fall and into January for the beginning primary states, but after Saturday it should be clear to most observers that the Republican nomination will come down to a fight between Mitt Romney and whoever the more conservative wing of the party chooses between Rick Perry and Bachmann.

The first official casualty after the vote was Tim Pawlenty. After a distant third-place finish despite pouring money and resources into Iowa, the former Minnesota governor announced Sunday that he was going to end his presidential bid. Pawlenty theoretically was the strongest alternative to Romney amongst the more moderate wing of the Republican Party. Jon Huntsman is still in the race, but there doesn’t seem to be any reasonable chance for him to overtake Romney. Ron Paul’s extremely close second place finish to Bachmann in the straw poll speaks more to the dedication of his group of libertarian supporters than it does him suddenly gaining new supporters. His views on foreign policy make him practically unelectable in a Republican primary.

Romney will now wait to see who wins out amongst the more conservative wing of the Republican Party. While Rick Santorum had a solid fourth place finish and seems to be gaining some momentum for how principled he appears, those principles make him unelectable in a general contest; the Republican Party wants a candidate who can beat Barack Obama. Santorum will fade shortly. Herman Cain will suffer a similar fate. Newt Gingrich’s campaign is dead in the water. That leaves a two-person battle for the conservative heart of the party between Bachmann and Perry.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry did his best to overshadow the Iowa straw poll this weekend. On the eve of the straw poll, his campaign announced that Perry would announce his candidacy on the day of the poll. He bypassed participating in the straw poll and instead made his announcement from South Carolina. It is debatable as to how wise a move this was. Since Iowa is the first actual caucus of the primary process in January, it could be a risky move upstaging the Iowa Republican Party’s show. But, considering he was able to garner over 700 votes as a write-in candidate in the poll and have extensive media coverage, he was certainly able to make a strong entrance into the race.

Perry figures to shake up the race. He carries a gun and always wears cowboy boots, which the conservative base of the party will love. Despite the economic hardships that plague the country, Texas has managed to grow jobs. He also used to be a Democrat, which will raise some questions with the conservative base.

The Iowa straw poll showed that the party activists in the state are being drawn in by enthusiasm and a conviction to one’s beliefs. The failure of Tim Pawlenty to portray himself as an exciting candidate resulted in his demise. In coming days, more candidates will almost certainly drop out of the race. By the beginning of the winter, the race for the Republican nomination should be down to a three-way race.


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