Home Run Derby Depression

Perennially, the Major League Baseball Home Run Derby is the most exciting event of the summer. While all the other professional sports are not in season, the MLB takes center stage and presents their best players during the 2011 All-Star Weekend. As the All-Star Game itself becomes less and less enjoyable as more players decline their invitations, the Home Run Derby steps up to the plate as the most electrifying MLB spectacle of the mid-summer celebration.

Unfortunately, players seem to hurt their swing by participating in the derby. Every year, some of the participants experience an extreme offensive drop off after the derby. Even a few players endure injuries soon after. For example, after playing 13 games since the All-Star break, Rickie Weeks severely sprained his left ankle and is out for approximately a month. Last year, Hanley Ramirez played 86 of the Marlins’ 88 games in the first half of the season, but missed 18 games after the All-Star break due to an elbow injury. And in 2009, Nelson Cruz missed 27 games in the second half of the season after only missing 7 in the first half. Also, in 2009, Carlos Pena played 88 of 89 first half games and then missed 26 of 73 after the derby. Injuries can significantly hurt a team because these power hitters are very hard to find and extremely difficult to replace.

In previous years, the Home Run Derby has statistically hurt players much more than it has helped. In 2008 itself, four of the eight derby participants had significant depletions in their hitting after the derby. Lance Berkman went from having a first half of .347 AVG/.443 OBP/.653 SLG to a second half of .259/.384/.436. 2008 Derby winner Justin Morneau and Dan Uggla also had their struggles. After the All-Star break, they both fell off by more than .050 in batting average, .040 in on-base percentage, .200 in slugging percentage and .13 in home runs per game from their first half statistics. Chase Utley did not fair too well either with regard to home runs. He had 25 HR in 94 games (.27 per game) before the derby; however, afterward, he had only 8 in 65 games (.12 HR per game). What could be the worst incidents of ‘Derby Depression’ are Bobby Abreu in 2005 and Brandon Inge in 2009. Abreu dropped from 18 HR and .307/.428/.526 in the first half to 6 HR and .260/.376/.411 in the second half after winning the derby with the best single derby HR total (41). Inge was even worse: a first half of 21 HR and .268/.360/.515 to a second half of 6 HR and .186/.260/.281.

These horrendous collapses from Home Run Derby hitters are even apparent in the limited number of games since the All-Star break this year. Before Rickie Weeks went down with his injury in the second half, he was hitting .217/.308/.413 after a first half of .278/.351/.486. In addition, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Matt Holliday and Jose Bautista are all experiencing falls in their HR numbers after the derby. Gonzalez has 1 HR in 15 games since the break (0.07 HR per game) after having 19 in 87 games (0.22 per game). Ortiz has 1 HR in 13 games and neither Matt Holliday nor Jose Bautista has any HR since the derby. Obviously, these players do have two months to turn around their power numbers in the second half of the season, but as of right now, the Home Run Derby is affecting all of them.

Being an exhibition event, the Home Run Derby should be an enjoyable experience for both fans and players. Unfortunately, players are somewhat reluctant to participate because of the consequences to their hitting. The majority of hitters reformulate their swing during the derby in order to hit as many home runs as they can. Therefore, they must readjust to normal pitching after the 3-day All-Star break, which includes the derby. This awkward situation presents the ‘Derby Dilemma,’ in which a good or even great home run hitter must decide whether to risk his second half power numbers by being a part of the Home Run Derby.

*All statistics are official as of games before Monday, August 1

(Sources: http://www.baseball-reference.com/)


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