With 4 days to go until the New Hampshire primary Mitt Romney is ahead in the polls largely based on the rational that he is the most “electable” of the primary candidates. To begin to wrap up the Republican nomination he will have to get over 50% of the vote in a moderate state like New Hampshire and do it easily against the supposedly “fringe” opposition. If he can’t get 50% in New Hampshire the national pundits will have to start questioning the rational for his candidacy.
Mitt Romney has every possible advantage in the upcoming New Hampshire primary. His name recognition amongst likely primary voters is virtually 100%. Roughly, two thirds of the state get their news from the Boston media, so no one should be unfamiliar with the positions Romney took as Governor of Massachusetts. This is the second “all in” primary Romney has waged in New Hampshire. His campaign network has been in place for well over 5 years. No campaign can possibly have a better “ground game” in any state.
The Romney campaign has the resources on hand to outspend his other opponents combined. The Romney cash advantage is so great that Rick Perry is skipping the state and taking his campaign, as well as the accompanying life support apparatus, straight to South Carolina. The Iowa surprise, Rick Santorum, is making appearances around the state but is hoarding his meager cash for later contests. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are spending in New Hampshire but are not anywhere near Romney levels. While Huntsman is still in play in New Hampshire, his organization is reportedly very thin and he needs to draw in the exact same voter as Romney does.
The population demographics are very favorable to Mitt Romney as well. According to NBC/Marist polling data 22% of likely primary voters consider themselves Fundamentalist or Evangelical Christians in New Hampshire. The corresponding number in Iowa was 46%. In Iowa 40% of likely voters identified themselves as college graduates. New Hampshire voters are identifying themselves as college graduates at a 60% rate. New Hampshire has the 6 th highest per capita income in the US while Iowa claims the 24 th highest. The less religious, better educated and higher income voters gave Romney his razor thin margin Iowa. Having a pool of these voters in New Hampshire almost double in size, when compared to Iowa, must increase Romney’s victory proportionally.
Ron Paul and his dedicated band will be in force in New Hampshire, however, he has not shown any ability to break past 20% in the polls. The very religious voter that Rick Santorum rode to a near win in Iowa is largely absent in New Hampshire. Newt Gingrich is carrying the same baggage in every state he visits. Rick Perry is not even appearing in New Hampshire. Jon Huntsman, cut from the same cloth as Romney (Mormonism is only one of the many commonalities between them), has only the thinnest of reasons for remaining in the race. If Mitt Romney is a truly strong candidate the Huntsman argument that he is a somewhat more principled version of Romney will not wash in the Granite State.
The time has come for Mitt Romney to prove that he is viable candidate in his own right. Much of the past year has been spent by the media asking whether any of his opponents are “electable”. Support for Romney has remained constant yet no one in the media seems to question why it has not grown. Can a candidacy win an election without building positive momentum? Can Romney draw “moderate” Republicans to his candidacy in numbers significant enough to offset losses amongst conservatives who seemingly detest him? Can he appeal to any of those who consider themselves strongly or somewhat conservative? Romney can prevent the media from even asking if he can crack the 50% mark in his New Hampshire backyard. He will not get a better chance to close the deal and continue getting the soft scrutiny he has received.