“For real?”
How many times have you been asked that? You say something and immediately everybody has to ask if you’re serious. Unless you’re “That Guy” why wouldn’t you be serious? Hence, my answer has always been, “No, for fake.”
Here we are heading into Week 3 of the fantasy football season. Week 2 was not for the faint of heart. Between the injuries and the performances, it was tough for your team to just have a “normal” week. Now we have to sort through the rubble. Which of these performers from Week 2 are “For Real” and which are “For Fake”.
QB
CAM NEWTON (432 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 3 INT’s, 53 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD) After Week 1, everybody figured that Newton was good, but nowhere near as good as he showed in Week 1. He did turn the ball over in Week 2. But he should be owned in all fantasy leagues. Newton’s ability to record about 50 yards on the ground every game give him a bit of a margin for error. Again, he won’t be passing for 400 yards every week. But Steve Smith 1.0 looks like he’s back and the Panthers are going to throw the ball more than they run it. Both are surprises. FOR REAL
JASON CAMPBELL (323 passing yards, 2 passing TD’s, 1 INT, 3 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD) For the second week in a row, Campbell rushed for a TD. While Campbell played a good game, the Raiders are still primarily a running team. Rookie WR Denarius Moore made some incredible plays to bail Campbell out. Campbell is still not a bad back-up QB for fantasy owners, but he’s not QB1 material. FOR FAKE
ANDY DALTON (332 passing yards, 2 TD’s, 0 INT, 3 yards rushing) Dalton isn’t going to get to face the Browns or Broncos every week. But the kid has some talent. And the Bengals actually have a few weapons on offense to go along with an underrated defensive line. Are you starting Andy Dalton if you can avoid it? Probably not. But could he have a Sam Bradford-like rookie season for fantasy owners? Absolutely. That makes him worth owning in deeper leagues as a spot starter. His keeper/dynasty stock is mosdef on the rise. FOR REAL
MATT HASSELBECK (358 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) Hasselbeck is still a decent QB. He just really needs good protection. More so than most other QB’s. When he gets it, he will put up serviceable fantasy numbers. Kenny Britt is legit and that Chris Johnson guy ain’t so bad either. Hasselbeck has almost as much talent around him as he ever has. You can do worse than Hasselbeck as your back-up QB in deeper leagues. FOR REAL
MIKE KAFKA (7-9 for 79 passing yards, 2 yards rushing) If you missed it, Michael Vick suffered a concussion Sunday night vs. the Falcons. Kafka did his best to lead the Eagles to victory, only to have Jeremy Maclin suffer the worst dropped pass of his NFL career. The Eagles traded Kolb away because they were comfortable with Kafka as the back-up. Vince Young just doesn’t have the offense mastered yet. And he won’t anytime soon. If you own Vick without having another decent option at QB, it’s time to cop Kafka. Remember the success Kevin Kolb had as a spot starter for the Eagles? Kafka can replicate that. FOR REAL
RB
FRED JACKSON (117 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD’s, 2 receptions, 23 receiving yards) Is Jackson the RB1 his numbers suggest through two weeks? Nope. Should he be starting in your fantasy league every week? Absolutely. Jackson has solidified his grip on the starting job, leaving CJ Spiller as nothing but a handcuff. Jackson will struggle more than some RB’s in tough match-ups, but his ability to catch the ball somewhat negates this. Jackson is a RB2 in PPR leagues and a strong FLEX option in standard leagues. FOR REAL
WILLIS MCGAHEE (101 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 1 reception, 5 receiving yards) McGahee looked decent in Week 2 and that was reflected on the stat sheet. He could even score more points than Knowshon Moreno this year. This is a split job, a RBBC (Running Back By Committee). That’s not going to change anytime soon. Neither back is going to be able to prosper while the other is healthy. Moreno missed Week 2 and McGahee capitalized. Don’t mistake this for any sort of breakout. FOR FAKE
BEN TATE (103 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 32 receiving yards) Arian Foster returned. Then he departed again. At this point, Tate has to be owned in all leagues. There’s now a real danger of this becoming a RBBC backfield. That won’t benefit Foster or Tate. As for Tate himself, his skills are very real. As are Foster’s. The Texans offense might be able to support two viable fantasy RB’s. Hang onto to Tate unless you can extract a fortune from Arian Foster’s owner for him in trade. FOR REAL
DARREN SPROLES (17 rushing yards, 8 receptions, 43 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) The return of Lance Moore didn’t do much to slow down Sproles. If your league awards points for return yardage, Sproles should probably started every week. If not, Sproles should still be owned in all PPR leagues. In standard leagues, you should probably look elsewhere. Sproles won’t do much on the ground and will need to score TD’s to have value in standard leagues. That makes him a poor bet to be consistent from week-to-week. FOR FAKE (Standard Leagues) FOR REAL (PPR Leagues)
JAMES STARKS (85 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 30 receiving yards) The Packers backfield is still a true RBBC. But Starks seems like the Packers RB you want. Ryan Grant is seeing less snaps than Starks and is not a factor in the passing game. John Kuhn will continue to vulture TD’s no matter who else is in the backfield. The only downside to Starks is his scary injury history. But that’s just a chance you have to take. The upside is too tantalizing, especially in PPR leagues. FOR REAL
DANIEL THOMAS (18 carries, 107 rushing yards, 1 receptions, 10 receiving yards) Thomas was a lockout darling. He was being drafted as a RB2. When the Dolphins traded for Reggie Bush, the Thomas Hype Train barely slowed down. But after poor reports from the coaching staff and an equally poor preseason, Thomas saw his stock fall drastically. But guess what? He’s behind only injury-prone Reggie Bush on the depth chart. He’s on a team that always attempts to run the ball, with a good run blocking offensive line. He’s not the most dynamic RB in the world. And he’s still not really a starting option until Reggie Bush inevitably gets injured. But he should be owned in all leagues with 12+ teams. FOR REAL
WR
DENARIUS MOORE (25 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 146 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) Moore was a training camp hype machine, and the coaching staff couldn’t issue enough glowing reports about him. Then Moore disappeared at the end of the preseason and only saw one target in Week 1. Then Jacoby Ford and Darius Heyward-Bey suffered injuries. That pretty much left Moore as the last man standing in the Oakland WR corps. After this performance, he’s not going anywhere. Consider this the end of the Heyward-Bey Project. Add Moore in leagues with 12+ teams. This won’t be the only monster game Moore has this season. FOR REAL
ERIC DECKER (5 receptions, 113 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) Brandon Lloyd missed the game in Week 2 and Eddie Royal went down with groin injury. And Decker stepped up. Decker was an excellent college player and was a highly-regarded prospect when he was drafted. He’s just now getting his first chance at extended playing time. And he’s taking advantage of it. Look for him to start opposite Brandon Lloyd for the rest of the season. In leagues that award points for return yardage, he’s an every-week starter. Add Decker in any PPR league that you can. FOR REAL
DAVID NELSON (10 receptions, 83 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown a propensity to spread the ball around. Roscoe Parrish was lost to injury, and Steve Johnson was limited by an injury. David Nelson exploited his opportunity. He’s not a bad WR to have for depth in a deep PPR leagues. But he would really need an injury to Steve Johnson to be startable in fantasy leagues. You can do better. FOR FAKE
DEVERY HENDERSON (3 catches, 103 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) Henderson was a fantasy star for the second week in a row. Don’t count on this every week. Henderson had only three targets in Week 2. He’s no better than the 4th option in the Saints passing game with Lance Moore back. You might be able to get something for him in trade in deeper leagues. I would explore that option. I would also have no problem cutting Henderson for Denarius Moore or Eric Decker. FOR FAKE
AJ GREEN (10 receptions, 124 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) & JEROME SIMPSON (4 catches, 136 receiving yards) Everybody loved Green and Simpson early in the summer when in was assumed that Carson Palmer or some other veteran QB would be under center. After watching Andy Dalton for two weeks, I’m not convinced that he’s any worse than the version of Palmer we saw last season. The injury to Jordan Shipley should lead to increased targets for Green and Simpson. Green should be owned in all leagues. Simpson should be owned in PPR leagues with 14+ teams or deep 12-team leagues. FOR REAL
DEION BRANCH (8 receptions, 129 receiving yards) Branch is CLEARLY ahead of Ochocinco in the Patriots passing game. That’s unlikely to change anytime soon. Branch looks like a decent bet to repeat his success from last season. He should be owned in all PPR leagues and in deeper standard leagues. FOR REAL
TE
DUSTIN KELLER (6 receptions 101 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) Keller started equally hot last season. And he couldn’t sustain it. Will he sustain his current pace? Nope. Will he finish the season as a top-12 TE? Yep. Keller should be owned in all 12-team leagues and probably most 10-team leagues as well. FOR REAL
FRED DAVIS (6 receptions, 86 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) Chris Cooley played in this game and didn’t show up on the score sheet. The Redskins are using a 2-TE as their base offense and Davis has passed Cooley on the depth chart. Davis was a high 2nd round draft pick for a reason. He’s always been a useful fantasy option when starting for Cooley. Now you get to enjoy that production every week. They won’t all be this good, but the overall numbers will indicate that Davis is a TE1 worth starting in pretty much all leagues, at least for now. FOR REAL
JEFF KING (2 receptions, 36 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) King scored for the second consecutive week. But he was only targeted twice in the passing game. The Cardinals are using three TE’s which is negating any possible fantasy value for any of them. FOR FAKE
SCOTT CHANDLER (2 receptions, 16 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) Chandler only saw three targets, but was targeted in the red zone. He’s still just a guy to pick up for TE depth in very deep leagues. But he’s the primary TE here, so there is some upside. He could be for real at some point this season. FOR FAKE
EVAN MOORE (1 reception, 16 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) Moore was another TE who scored for the second week in a row. But it was his only receiving target. As long as Moore and Ben Watson are both healthy, it will be tough to trust either as a consistent fantasy option. If Watson were to suffer an injury, Moore would be VERY real. FOR FAKE
Remember, nothing is real or fake forever. We’re always looking for consistent production. To do that you need skill and opportunity. When in doubt, go for opportunity over skill. You have to be in the game to score the points. Seems simple enough right? It’s more or less how I had the game of golf originally explained to me. Just hit the ball in the hole in as few shots as possible. What could be easier?
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