Nashville, Tennessee plays host to Mississippi State and Wake Forest in the 2011 Music City Bowl. The Mississippi State Bulldogs went 3-6 in SEC play and finished 6-6 overall. Five of the Bulldogs losses came to teams that won at least 10 games this year, including losses to LSU and Alabama, the top teams in the country. Wake Forest was 5-3 in the ACC and 6-6 overall. The Demon Deacons lost 4 of their last 5 games.
When Wake Forest is on Offense
The Demon Deacons offense ranked 61st in the nation scoring 26.8 points per game. Sophomore quarterback Tanner Price played well this season completing 60% of his passes for 2803 yards and 20 touchdowns. Wide receiver Chris Givens is the main target with 74 catches and 1276 yards receiving. Brandon Pendergrass (750 yards) and Josh Harris (432 yards) both had over 100 carries for Wake Forest this season.
Mississippi State played solid defense all season. The Bulldogs defense ranked 19th in the nation allowing only 19.9 points per game. Mississippi State will need to do a better job rushing the passer against Wake Forest than they did for most of the season. With only 21 sacks in 12 games the Bulldogs rank 72nd in college football.
When Mississippi State is on Offense
The Bulldogs offense was average at best this season. They ranked 72nd in scoring at 25.5 points per game. Chris Relf and Tyler Russell both played quarterback this season but neither did particular well. The Bulldogs ranked 92nd in the nation in passing yards with only 186.3 per game. Senior running back Vick Ballard is a load at 5’11”, 220lbs. Ballard averaged 5.6 yards per carry on his way to 1009 yards rushing this year.
Wake Forest’s defense gave up an average of 27.8 points per game this season. Wake Forest really struggled to rush the passer this season with only 10 sacks this year. Senior safety Josh Bush had 6 of Wake Forest’s 11 interceptions this year.
2011 Music City Bowl Pick Against the Spread
Oddsmakers currently have Mississippi State listed as 6.5 point favorites over Wake Forest. The Bulldogs should be able to run the ball against the Demon Deacons and can control the game with great defense. I expect a low scoring game that is closer than the current spread. Bet on Mississippi State to win outright, but take Wake Forest with the 6.5 points.
2011 Music City Bowl Prediction
Mississippi State – 24
Wake Forest – 20
Source
espn.go.com/college-football/bowls