Want Next Year’s Big Fantasy Sleeper? Don’t Sleep Through the Final 4 Weeks of the Season

Week 14 in Fantasy Football is when a hand full of teams begin their post season, and most of the other participants log off until next year. Chances are that those who missed the league’s post season can list numerous reasons for their teams’ lack of success, and they’d consider drafting a sleeper lucky. As a perennial playoff team, I would have to disagree, drafting a sleeper can sometimes be more than just a product of good luck. It is no coincidence that I drafted TE sleeper Jimmy Graham in both of my 2011 Yahoo Fantasy League draft’s, and in 2010 took one time RB sleeper Arian Foster in several drafts. The common indicator for each one of these picks was found in the performance of their last four games of the regular season.

TE Jimmy Graham stats from the final four games of the 2010 NFL season
Receiving Fantasy Week, Opp, Result, Target, Rec Yard, Avg, TD, FFPts

Week 14 STL W 31-13, 1, 21, 21.0, 0, 2.1
Week 15 at BAL L 24-30, 7, 5, 29, 5.8, 2, 14.9
Week 16 at ATL W 17-14, 5, 4, 26, 6.5, 1, 8.6
Week 17 TB L 13-23, 2, 2, 15, 7.5. 1, 7.5 (sports.yahoo.com)

Take notice of how four of Graham’s five touchdowns for the year came in the last 3 weeks of the regular season, indicating an upward trend. Also, Graham had four of the Saints six overall TD’s in the last 3 games, which showed an increase in offensive involvement.

RB Arian Foster stats from the final four games of the 2009 NFL season
Rushing Receiving Fantasy Week, Opp, Result, Att, Yard, Avg, TD, Target, Rec Yard, Avg, TD, FFPts

Week 14 SEA W 34-7, 13, 34, 2.6, 0, 4, 4, 54, 13.5, 0, 8.8
Week 15 at STL W 16-13, 2, 7, 3.5, 0, 1, 1, 13, 13.0, 0, 2.0
Week 16 at MIA W 27-20, 19, 97, 5.1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 15.7
Week 17 NE W 34-27, 20, 119, 6.0, 2, 4, 3, 26, 8.7, 0, 26.5 (sports.yahoo.com)

Foster did not even touch the ball for the Houston Texans until week 14 of the 2009 season. His first game on week 14 was a lack luster rushing performance, but his 4 receptions for 54 yards did show an ability to catch and run. Week 16 was the breakout game for Foster, with a TD and 97 yards rushing. The Final week 17 game was explosive, when Foster scored 2 TD’s and 119 yards rushing. His long run of 24 yards showed a potential for making big plays.

Who will be the next big sleeper in your 2012 fantasy football draft? The answer remains unknown until next season, but the official hunt for that great fantasy draft pick starts now. Don’t sleep on week’s 14-17 stats if you want to find next season’s sleeper.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/24070/gamelog;_ylt=AlHgzr7Cy3EaCY7N.pxoUX_.uLYF?year=2010
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/9527/gamelog;_ylt=Anlvwc2l5ln5eWqaaB2GMMf.uLYF?year=2009


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