Tim Tebow is the sole reason for the Denver Broncos’ current success: that’s not a debatable opinion but rather a matter of junior high school mathematics.
Mathematics notwithstanding, nearly every sports commentator, pundit, and football fan alike has an opinion about the Broncos’ starting quarterback. A devout Christian who often prays on the sideline, Tebow is the first option quarterback to achieve meaningful success in the pass-oriented NFL; as a result, secular humanists and football purists suffer collective apoplexy each time Tebow runs over an opposing linebacker en route to yet another long gain.
Conventional wisdom among football traditionalists is that quarterbacks who primarily rely on running ability cannot succeed in the NFL. More to the point, traditionalists consider it heresy to suggest that option quarterbacks belong in professional football. The rationale for this view is two-fold: college-style option offenses are too simple to succeed at the pro level, and running quarterbacks are not likely to survive the punishing tackles of NFL defenders week after week. As applied to Tebow, however, this rationale ignores two important things: he was the most prolific spread option quarterback in college football history, and, at 6-3, 235 lbs., he can run a 4.62 40-yard dash.
In defiance of conventional wisdom, Denver is 6-1 since naming Tebow its starting quarterback, improving the Broncos’ overall record from 1-4 to 7-5. During this resurgence, traditional measures of quarterback performance have predictably declined, but other more important offensive and team statistics have improved markedly. For instance, “Passing Yards per game” have declined from 212 to 137, but “Rushing Yards per game” have nearly doubled from 102 to 200; in fact, the Broncos now lead the NFL in rushing, and Tebow ranks third among all players in average yards per carry. Similarly, “Pass Completion %” has fallen from 58% to 47%, but “Turnovers Committed” have dropped from 2.4 to just 1.0, with Tebow throwing 10 touchdowns against just 1 interception. Most important, under the Broncos’ run-oriented offense, Denver’s “Time of Possession” has risen significantly from 26:43 to 30:16; not surprisingly, then, the well-rested Denver defense has yielded six fewer “Points Against” per game.
Now for the math: through the first 12 games of this NFL season, Time of Possession and Turnovers Committed are the only two stats that have a statistically significant correlation with both Points For and Points Against. Time of Possession is positively correlated with Points For and inversely correlated with Points Against. Turnovers Committed is inversely correlated with Points For and positively correlated with Points Against. Plainly stated, teams like the Tebow-led Broncos that possess the ball and do not commit turnovers, regularly outscore their opponents. No other football statistics are better predictors of a game’s final score.
On a recent episode of ESPN First Take, commentator Steven A. Smith referred to Tebow as a “very marginal quarterback” and mostly credited the Broncos’ defense for the team’s success. Most in the sports establishment share this opinion, including ESPN analyst Cris Carter and DirecTV sports talk show host Dan Patrick, to name just two. Smith, Carter, and Patrick are plainly wrong: Denver’s defense is giving up fewer points per game because it is on the field far less when Tim Tebow is the starting quarterback. Resolving any doubt, five of Denver’s seven victories occurred when it won the Time of Possession battle; and, in the other two victories, it committed fewer turnovers. By comparison, four of the Broncos’ five losses occurred when it lost the Time of Possession battle; and, unsurprisingly, Denver’s other loss occurred when it committed more turnovers.
Source(s):
“Schedule – Box Scores,” Official Site of the Denver Broncos
“Sortable Stats,” Yahoo! Sports
“Team Statistics,” Official Site of the Denver Broncos