On Thursday, #16 South Florida will make a trip to Pittsburgh to face the Panthers. This game is scheduled for 8:00 pm.
The Big East Conference Factor
NCAA football is probably one of the toughest sports to analyze. As a football analyst of TakeoSports, it takes a lot of my time. You want to know why? Records and rankings are misleading. In the NFL, you have 32 teams to take care of, in the NCAA, more than 100. To evaluate a team, you first need to see in which conference they play and then look at their performance in conference games.
Last year, USF went 3-4 in their division while Pittsburgh went 5-2. Actually, the Panthers went 5-2 the past 3 years against Big East opponents. This will be the first conference game of the Big East division. Even if Pittsburgh is 2-2, everything is still possible if they win the Big East matchups. Indeed, for them it’s do or die time. In front of them, they have #16 USF (4-0), Cincinnati (3-1) and #24 West Virgnia (3-1). The Panthers have two ranked teams in front of them, but they are clearly one of the best teams of the Big East conference. Pittsburgh gets no credit right now, and they have owned this conference in the past years. Look for them to be fired up and prove that they belong to the class of the Big East. A Bowl spot is still possible if they start with a win at home vs USF.
Perception: USF is the best team since they are ranked #16
Reality: Both teams are even and Pittsburgh gets the motivation edge
The Notre-Dame Irish Factor
On Week 1, USF defeated the Notre-Dame Fighting Irish by the score of 23-20. However, USF had everything going in their way. Notre Dame committed 5 turnovers (many of them in critical situations) and made a QB switch at the half time. Even more, this game was stopped twice by rain delay.
On Week 4, Pittsburgh played the Irish. The Irish were desperate to get the win since they were 1-2. Pittsburgh played a tough game with solid defense. They had the lead in the 4th quarter and came short at the end. Still the Panthers performance versus Notre Dame was as good (some would say better) than the performance from USF. The final score doesn’t always tell the story of the game.
Perception: USF has the edge since they won versus the Irish
Reality: There is no edge based on this factor
The Short Week Factor
Playing on Thursday night is always a tough task, even more for the road team. Sources revealed that the USF Bulls had a practice at 10 pm on Monday. Usually, there is no practice on Monday since it’s the biggest academic day of the week for the players. They also had a practice on Tuesday and Wednesday they are leaving for Pittsburgh. On the opposite, Pittsburgh played home last week and didn’t have to travel back home.
Perception: None, since the public doesn’t think about this factor
Reality: Pittsburgh has a huge edge
The Public Action Factor
As of now, 91% of the action (based on TakeoSports.com data) is on USF Bulls. Why? Because USF are #16. Even more, USF won over the Irish while Pittsburgh lost against them. The public believes it’s a mismatch. It is not.
Perception: It is a mismatch and USF will win easily
Reality: We get a great line because of the heavy action on USF
Conclusion
As you can see, we haven’t talk much about defense and offense here. Actually, both teams are pretty even. USF has a great offense with QB BJ Daniels leading the team. On the other end, Pittsburgh has a solid defense. Daniels is a prototype NFL quarterback. However, the Panthers are able to rush the quarterback and did it at perfection versus Notre-Dame. In brief, both teams have their own strengths and are even overall. However, Vegas tell us the following thing. If this game would be on a neutral field, USF would be favourite by 6 points. This line is totally wrong.
Therefore, the right side is definitely the home team. I believe that Pittsburgh has a chance to win this game!