As the date of December 31, 2011 looms for US troops to withdraw from Iraq, the Chinese Government hopes to capitalize on the current security situation. A recent report from Stuart W. Bowen, Jr. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, highlights the litany of problems facing US troops and the Iraqi Government as the US troop withdraw date rapidly approaches. Not only do members of the US armed forces still face continuing violence, mostly from various Shi’a militias, such as the Mahdi Army led by Moqtada al-Sadr, but many members of the Iraqi Government, in 2011, were targets for assassination. Throughout the most recent quarter, from mid-March to mid-July 2011, no less than 70 Iraqi Government Officials were targeted in assassination attempts, and almost 40 were successful, including one Ali al-Lami, head of a committee tasked with finding Iraqis linked to the Hussein regime. The principal Iraqi government targets continue to be members of the Judiciary, with more than 47 judges assassinated since 2003. That number includes Judge Tuama al-Tamimi, killed with his family when a suicide bomber attacked his home. In fact, Commanding General for Operations for USF-I (US Forces-Iraq), Lt. Gen. Frank Helmick, stated that attacks and attempted assassinations against high Iraqi Government Officials has emerged as one of the most vexing problems currently facing Iraq.
Further, with the Chinese Government making a major push for more influence within Iraq, the US faces yet another obstacle. The Chinese Government is poised to enjoy the most sizeable economic benefit from the Iraq War dating from 2003 to the present. Although the Chinese Government was one of the most outspoken protestors to the 2003 US-led invasion, its state-run oil companies CNPC (Chinese National Petroleum Company) and Sinopec, victoriously outbid various western oil companies and was been awarded five lucrative contracts for oil explorations, development, and refining within Iraq. China’s great demand for oil seems to be the country’s primary motivating factor in many of its realist foreign policy decisions. The Chinese Government’s various oil companies consistently operate in countries avoided by many others. It appears that the Chinese Government is willing to assume risks to fulfill its economy’s thirst for petroleum. Whether Sudan, Iran, or now Iraq, China is, quite clearly, willing to wager extreme risks in hopes of winning the highly demanded natural resources.
The new relationship between the Chinese Government and the Iraqi Government seems to go deeper than simply oil. China, following its realist foreign policy, on July 18, 2011, the Prime Minister of the Iraqi Government, Nouri al-Maliki, and the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, signed an agreement in which the two countries pledged to further cooperate in the oil industry, agriculture, technology development, transportation, housing, and telecommunications. In a second agreement, the Chinese Government pledged administrative skills training for members of the Iraqi Government. Further, the agreement created a fund in which the Chinese Government is to contribute to Iraq’s reconstruction. And finally, China agreed to write off 80% of Iraqi Government’s outstanding debt, an amount close to $7 billion.
Adding further to the problems facing the US in Iraq, the Sadr Movement led by the Shi’a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr holds almost 40 seats in the Iraqi Parliament and 43 local government seats, announced that a petition demanding withdrawal of US troops according to the schedule has more than 2.5 million signatures. Further, Moqtada al-Sadr has warned that he will re-mobilize the Mhadi Army, the military wing of the Sadr Movement, if US troops stay past the withdraw date. The Mhadi Army, though currently inactive, played a major part in the Shi’a uprising of 2004 and the total religious violence that has plagued Iraq since 2004.
With the US troop withdraw date quickly approaching, Iraq, though significantly less violent now compared to 2004 – 2008, is still politically, socially, and economically unstable. Though ground has been made in governance and accountability, corruption continues to be rampant. While the US may have one foot out the door, China is quickly moving in. The Chinese Government is on the verge of becoming the Iraqi Government’s most important ally. Public opinion of the US within Iraq, though more favorable than in years past, is anything but popular. It appears that Iraq is at a crossroads and is quickly asserting its independence. Though the US will continue to have political pull within Iraq, its preeminence is quickly fading.