COMMENTARY | The GOP primary race is heating up in the Sunshine State. Among the candidates, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in particular have experienced notable volatility during the last week. Romney went into the South Carolina primary as the favored candidate. However, as is often the case in politics, this lead quickly dissolved — at least temporarily.
Gingrich left the polls with a 40.4 percent to 27.8 percent win over Romney, highlighting the question many pundits, such as Rush Limbaugh, have been asking for a few weeks: Will Romney’s attempts at character assassination against Gingrich have the desired effect or will they backfire?
Not willing to be outshined by South Carolina, Florida now stands poised to again turn the tide if this week’s polling can be trusted. Despite his substantial win in South Carolina and the momentum that victory offered, it appears a majority of Gingrich’s steam has burned off in the days leading to the next challenge in Florida. As of Friday, most polls showed Romney with an undeniable lead, with Reuters/Ipsos indicating an eight-point advantage.
Romney’s lead is more consistent with polling conducted in previous weeks, suggesting Gingrich’s rallying victory in South Carolina was not necessarily indicative of public opinion or the eventual outcome of the GOP primary. However, history suggests that it would be unwise to go too far with such speculation and count Gingrich — or any other candidate — completely out of the running. Much can change in a very short period of time, as we witnessed in South Carolina, and an underdog can suddenly find himself a lap ahead without anyone being able to tell him exactly how it happened.
If nothing else, the GOP primary has provided us with a case study in aggressive campaign strategies which ask voters to examine character as much or more than performance. Romney and Gingrich possess “career politician” qualities that are seemingly incompatible with the conservative movement that created sweeping changes in 2010, suggesting much of what we are witnessing within the polls stems from smart campaigning rather than objective performance comparisons.
We will all have to wait and see how the GOP primary pans out, but this promises to be an exciting race all the way to the very end.