They say history repeats itself. If that is true, current economic trends stand against Barack Obama in his bid for reelection. In the past few decades, many presidential candidates have run on the platform of economic reform. This is a funny thing especially since the president has little direct control over the economy. In the last twenty years, men such as Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke have more control over the economy than the commander and chief, and those men aren’t even elected officials. Historical tends point to the fact that Mr. Obama’s shot at reelection if grim at best. If you look at recent presidential trends, it seems that when the nation is going through a tough economic spot, the people tend to elect the incumbent party in a presidential election. In fact, this is a tactic Obama used when he was elected. The economy was certainly on the wrong track during the 2008 elections. Obama rolled up his sleeves, and portrayed himself as a working-class hero. It wasn’t difficult for many Americans to vote for a platform of change considering the looming recession.
Backtrack a few years and remember Gerald Ford. Ford was faced with a poor economy plus the pressure caused in the wake of Watergate. Jimmy Carter was able to easily defeat Ford on the basis of economic reform. The fact of the matter is, not only did Carter not have direct influence on the economy, but the economy actually got a bit worse under his watch. Remember George Bush Sr.? Bush was elected in the wake of Ronald Reagan. Through the Reagan years America enjoyed a prosperous economy. During the administration of Bush Sr. the country suffered a slight recession. Was this Bush’s fault? Certainly not, it was a part of an inevitable economic cycle. The recession during the Bush Sr. presidency made it easy for Bill Clinton to swoop in and claim the presidency in 1994. Like Reagan, Clinton was in the right place at the right time. During the Clinton years, the nation enjoyed the highest economic growth in American history.
The moral of the story is, keep an eye on the Republican primaries, because there is a strong chance that the winner of those primaries will be the next president of the United States. The GOP seems to have history on its side. Too bad we can’t elect the chairman of the FED.